Measuring Inflation Anchoring and Uncertainty: A U.S. and Euro Area Comparison

We use several U.S. and euro‐area surveys of professional forecasters to estimate a dynamic factor model of inflation featuring time‐varying uncertainty. We obtain survey‐consistent distributions of future inflation at any horizon, both in the U.S. and the euro area. Equipped with this model, we propose a novel measure of the anchoring of inflation expectations that accounts for inflation uncertainty. Our results suggest that following the Great Recession, inflation anchoring improved in the United States, while mild de‐anchoring occurred in the euro area. As of our sample end, both areas appear to be almost equally anchored.     

基于动态冲击试验的通勤类飞机座椅符合性验证技术

国产某型民用通勤类飞机为了取得欧洲航空安全局(EASA)型号合格证,机上座椅需进行设计更改并补充进行应急着陆情况下的动态要求符合性验证.通过对适航条款及相应标准的解读,研究了基于动态试验的航空座椅动态要求适航验证技术,其主要包括座椅动态性能基本要求、试验构型及工况筛选、试验规划、合格判据和试验结果分析等内容.结果表明,该型机旅客座椅满足适航规章对座椅的动态性能要求.该项旅客座椅动态性能试验的成功为型号取得EASA型号合格证奠定了良好的基础,该型飞机也即将成为第一个取得欧洲型号合格证的国产飞机.     

Macroeconomic consequences of state fragility in sub‐Saharan Africa

Are poor macroeconomic outcomes primarily the result of economic policies, or of deeper underlying state fragility problems in sub‐Saharan Africa? We attempt to answer this question by using carefully specified dynamic panel regression techniques to show how state fragility conditions help to explain the differences in the macroeconomic performance of sub‐Saharan African economies, and to identify the most plausible mechanisms of transmission. We find that countries with greater fragility suffer higher macroeconomic volatility and crisis; they also experience weaker growth. When we disaggregate state fragility into its various components, we find that it is the security and social components that have the strongest causal impact on macroeconomic outcomes, while the political component is, at best, weak. Therefore, we conclude that it is state fragility conditions, and not necessarily macroeconomic policies, that are of first‐order importance in explaining the differences in macroeconomic performance for African countries. The knock‐on effects are mostly mediated through the fiscal channel, the aid channel, and the finance channel. Accordingly, we recommend that interventions in fragile states should best focus on exploiting the potential for using fiscal policy, aid, and finance as instruments to improve macroeconomic outcomes in sub‐Saharan Africa.     

Semistatic hedging and pricing American floating strike lookback options

We price an American floating strike lookback option under the Black–Scholes model with a hypothetic static hedging portfolio (HSHP) composed of nontradable European options. Our approach is more efficient than the tree methods because recalculating the option prices is much quicker. Applying put–call duality to an HSHP yields a tradable semistatic hedging portfolio (SSHP). Numerical results indicate that an SSHP has better hedging performance than a delta-hedged portfolio. Finally, we investigate the model risk for SSHP under a stochastic volatility assumption and find that the model risk is related to the correlation between asset price and volatility.     

Antecedents and outcomes of digital influencer endorsement: An exploratory study

The advertising and marketing literature have established that celebrity endorsements constitute an effective way to enhance attitudes toward brands and increase purchase intents. However, there are no relevant studies on digital influencers. This study addresses the research gap by examining the effect of digital influencers' attractiveness and the effect of the congruence between a digital influencer and a brand on consumer attitudes and purchase intentions. By applying structural equation modeling to a sample of 307 followers of digital influencers, a model was tested and group analysis was performed for two categories (“entertainment & video games” and “fashion & beauty”). The results show that both brand attitudes and purchase intentions are influenced by the digital influencer's attractiveness (which includes both likeability and familiarity) and by the congruence between the digital influencer and the brand. This study makes several contributions to both theory and practice, which are highlighted in this paper.     

The sweet smell of advertising: the essence of matching scents with other ad cues

New technologies enable practitioners to communicate scents in advertisements on various media. The current research examines the importance of matching scent cues to the advertised product, and the joint effect of scent and other cues such as colour on consumer responses to advertising. A 4 × 2 experimental design was conducted, where participants (N = 603) were presented with scented colour print advertisements. Three hierarchical responses were measured: emotional response, attitude, and purchase intention. Findings reveal that higher congruence between scent and the advertised product heightens positive consumer response. Furthermore, this research stresses the significant joint effect of scent and colour cues, and supports the incongruence approach, suggesting that combining scents that are poorly congruent with other sensory cues enhance consumer response. Practical and theoretical implications are discussed.     

光照水电站装设筒形阀分析

筒形阀是一种新型的水轮机进水阀,它与球阀或蝴蝶阀相比较有防止机组飞逸事故扩大效果明显、减轻导叶全关时导水机构的快速破坏并减少漏水量,以及动水开启方便、所需时间短等优点,但对运行条件也有一定的要求。光照水电站是贵州省第1个拟采用筒形阀的电站,为此对装设筒形阀的可行性和必要性进行了认真的分析。     

Discussion on the Benefits Distributing Structure in Village Land Deal

According to everyone average welfare value of land resources; this paper constitutes the base line of glebe usufruct deal value by analyzing the factors, which are affecting glebe usufruct deal value. Having adopted share＇s quotient of ownership and contracting power, the paper erects assigning mechanism to the income of glebe deal. Because of the share dynarnicity being adopted which shows the flexible strong points, the shares of ownership and contracting power avoid many unnecessary otiose disputes on income of glebe deal, adding the stability to the glebe usufruct deal. It is beneficial to the freedom flow and validity manufacture factor installment and also to the nonagricultural changing course.     

爆破震动作用下新浇基础混凝土的安全震动速度研究

针对新浇筑混凝土的爆破震动控制,设法利用爆破地震波(Rayleigh波)作用下的新浇筑基础混凝土受力状态的理论分析和动力有限元计算,确定的新浇筑混凝土中的震动速度及动拉应变分布,并结合不同龄期下新浇筑混凝土的允许极限拉应变,从理论上确定新浇筑基础混凝土的安全震动速度及主要影响因素.理论分析结果和计算实例表明,新浇筑基础混凝土的允许震动速度值随基岩对新浇筑混凝土的基础约束程度的提高和随混凝土强度的降低而降低,我国现行采用的新浇筑大体积混凝土基础面上的质点安全震动速度值具有较大的安全储备.