水平岩层软弱基座危岩体演化过程研究

以重庆市甄子岩29号危岩体为研究对象，基于现场调查和分析解剖，建立UDEC离散元数值计算模型，对其演化变形过程进行模拟分析。研究表明，在巨大的自重作用下，由于基座岩体岩质软，岩体较破碎，且基座外侧为直立的陡崖，具有完整的临空面，从而使基座岩体易发生压缩流变及剪切流变，进而使危岩体存在滑移垮塌的危险。     

EMPIRICAL PERFORMANCE OF GARCH MODELS WITH HEAVY‐TAILED INNOVATIONS

We introduce a new type of heavy‐tailed distribution, the normal reciprocal inverse Gaussian distribution (NRIG), to the GARCH and Glosten‐Jagannathan‐Runkle (1993) GARCH models, and compare its empirical performance with two other popular types of heavy‐tailed distribution, the Student's t distribution and the normal inverse Gaussian distribution (NIG), using a variety of asset return series. Our results illustrate that there is no overwhelmingly dominant distribution in fitting the data under the GARCH framework, although the NRIG distribution performs slightly better than the other two types of distribution. For market indexes series, it is important to introduce both GJR‐terms and the NRIG distribution to improve the models’ performance, but it is ambiguous for individual stock prices series. Our results also show the GJR‐GARCH NRIG model has practical advantages in quantitative risk management. Finally, the convergence of numerical solutions in maximum‐likelihood estimation of GARCH and GJR‐GARCH models with the three types of heavy‐tailed distribution is investigated.     

基于云概率密度分布估计的大坝监测数据分析

大坝运行监测易受自然环境和监测条件影响，存在时间和空间上的变异性，监测数据具有不确定性。以云理论的随机性和不确定性分析方法为基础，并与空间数据辐射思想相结合，建立了云滴概率密度分布估计模型，然后导出云概率密度分布函数，依据样本监测数据推求母体空间数据的分布特征，并设计了基于逆向云算法云变换的计算程序。分析陆浑水库1979~1999年测压管监测数据和位移变形数据的云概率密度分布特征和云数字特征，得出了20 a来大坝的数据分布特征和运行状态。监测数据分析结果表明，云概率密度分布估计不仅能有效合理地分析大坝的运行状态，而且能够依据云数字特征来判断监测状态和监测环境的异常变化。      

Economic Impacts of the Possible China–US Trade War

This article uses a multi-country global general equilibrium (GE) model to numerically simulate the effects of possible China–US trade wars. We introduce an endogenous trade imbalance structure with trade cost into the model which helps to explore both tariff and non-tariff trade war effects. Our simulation results show that China will be significantly hurt by the China–US trade war, but negative impacts are affordable. The US can gain under unilateral sanction measures to China, but will lose if China takes retaliation measures. Comparing the effects under mutual trade war, China will lose more than the US. Introducing non-tariff barrier trade wars will intensify the negative effects, and comparatively negative effects to China are larger than to the US. Mexico’s involvement in trade war with the US will strengthen the negative effects and comparatively hurt the US more. Under non-cooperative and cooperative Nash bargaining equilibrium, the US can gain more than China in trade war negotiation, which means the US has stronger bargaining power than China. Additionally, trade wars between China and the US will hurt most countries and the world especially in GDP and manufacturing employment, but benefit their welfare and trade.     

离心泵并联运行工况点的数值求解

建立了求解多台不同型号离心泵并联运行工况点的数学模型,给出了用数值计算中的“二分法”求解该模型的方法,并附有用Exce l计算的实例。     

弯曲性分叉河道中污染物扩散性的初步研究

弯曲性分叉河道中水流特征复杂,对污染物扩散有很大影响。为了定量分析其水流特征对污染物扩散的影响,采用有限元方法求解弯曲性分叉河道中的污染物扩散数学模型,研究其中污染物扩散的状况。主要针对河道回流、绕流对污染物扩散的影响进行了详细数值模拟计算,并分别给出了可视化结果及平均的扩散距离。计算结果表明:边界层稍微减弱污染物的扩散,弯道分离使污染物扩散呈现多向扩散,而回流和绕流尾迹区使污染物很难扩散,从而有利于泄漏污染物的收集和集中治理。     

伶仃洋三维潮流输沙的数值模拟

作者使用垂向坐标变换技术，结合有限差分方法建立了三维潮流输沙的数学模型。为了增加模型的稳定性和减少数值耗散，对悬沙对流扩散方程中的水平对流项采用三阶迎风格式离散。应用本模型对伶仃洋的枯季和洪季的潮流输沙的悬沙场进行了数值模拟，将模拟结果与实测资料进行比较，二者吻合较好。模拟结果分析表明：伶仃洋悬沙运动主要集中在西滩，对伶仃航道影响不大；洪季水体含沙浓度高于枯季；水体含沙浓度沿水深存在浓度梯度，且洪季的浓度梯度明显大于枯季。     

NUMERICAL INVESTIGATION ON MUD BED-GENERATION AND IMPACTING A WALL ALONG A SLOPE

In this paper mud was treated as the Bingham fluid. In staggered grids, two-dimensional incompressible Navier-Stokes equations for non-Newtonian fluid was solved by the MAC method. Numerical simulations were conducted on mud bed-generating phenomenon and mud impacting a wall along a slope. The distributions of free surface, pressure and velocity of mud and water were obtained. The results indicate that the computed layer thickness of mud bed almost equals the theoretically predicted value. Because of the differences in constitutive relationship, the distributions of free surface are different for water and mud. The distortion of water free surface is much more complicated.     

高雷诺数下双圆柱绕流的数值模拟

本文使用表面涡法研究高雷诺数下不同排列方式双圆柱绕流的流动状态，计算了双圆柱在并列、串列及级列的情况下的各种流动结构，涡街的变化及作用在圆柱上的受力情况。本文结果清楚地描述了双圆柱绕流复杂的流动状况，计算结果与实验显示的流动状况十分相似，斯特罗哈数和阻力系数与实验结果符合得很好。     

引水发电系统无压隧洞中弃水堰位置的数值模拟研究

水电站引水发电系统无压隧洞中的水力过渡过程是近年来电站设计中出现的一个新课题,特别是流域梯级电站开发中经常遇到。结合工程实例应用扩散法,给出了无压隧洞水力过渡过程数值模拟的基本方程以及上下游及弃水堰等边界附加方程,模拟了弃水堰布置在不同位置下,无压隧洞内的水位变化过程。研究成果和讨论对实际工程应用具有参考意义。