A Statistical Model to Investigate the Reproducibility Rate Based on Replication Experiments

The reproducibility crisis, that is, the fact that many scientific results are difficult to replicate, pointing to their unreliability or falsehood, is a hot topic in the recent scientific literature, and statistical methodologies, testing procedures and p‐values, in particular, are at the centre of the debate. Assessment of the extent of the problem–the reproducibility rate or the false discovery rate–and the role of contributing factors are still an open problem. Replication experiments, that is, systematic replications of existing results, may offer relevant information on these issues. We propose a statistical model to deal with such information, in particular to estimate the reproducibility rate and the effect of some study characteristics on its reliability. We analyse data from a recent replication experiment in psychology finding a reproducibility rate broadly coherent with other assessments from the same experiment. Our results also confirm the expected role of some contributing factor (unexpectedness of the result and room for bias) while they suggest that the similarity between original study and the replica is not so relevant, thus mitigating some criticism directed to replication experiments.     

Simulating the Evolution of the Implied Distribution

Motivated by the implied stochastic volatility literature (Britten–Jones and Neuberger, forthcoming; Derman and Kani, 1997; Ledoit and Santa–Clara, 1998) this paper proposes a new and general method for constructing smile–consistent stochastic volatility models. The method is developed by recognising that option pricing and hedging can be accomplished via the simulation of the implied risk neutral distribution. We devise an algorithm for the simulation of the implied distribution, when the first two moments change over time. The algorithm can be implemented easily, and it is based on an economic interpretation of the concept of mixture of distributions. It can also be generalised to cases where more complicated forms for the mixture are assumed.     

特细砂混凝土的应用及其经济性

通过介绍特细砂混凝土在嘉陵江流域的马回、东西关、桐子壕等水电站建设中的应用情况 ,分析了特细砂混凝土的特性和配合比等特点 ,并闸明了在施工中使用特细砂混凝土的经济效益。     

城市旧住宅小区管理模式研究

城市旧住宅小区管理模式有物业管理模式、社区管理模式和单位自管模式之分。旧小区管理模式改革和创新是建立政府行政管理与居民(业主)自治管理相结合、社区管理与物业管理相结合的混合型管理模式,其实现途径是加强政府对旧小区管理的领导和支持,充分发挥小区自治组织的作用,积极推行物业管理模式,更新思想观念,提高物业管理服务水平,建立物业管理与社区管理相结合的运作机制,加强法制建理服务设。     

Issues in the estimation and application of latent structure models of choice

Our paper provides a brief review and summary of issues and advances in the use of latent structure and other finite mixture models in the analysis of choice data. Focus is directed to three primary areas: (1) estimation and computational issues, (2) specification and interpretation issues, and (3) future research issues. We comment on what latent structure models have promised, what has been, to date, delivered, and what we should look forward to in the future.     

横泉水库旧坝体及黄土台地强夯处理实践

山西省横泉水库在原有遗留工程基础上进行重新建设，以往的4次施工，填兢了长400m、高17m左右的左岸坝体，填土约120万m^3，但坝体填筑质量极差，干客重和渗透系数根本无法满足设计要求。此次重新建设，决定对这部分干客重不迭设计要求且具有湿陷性的左岸旧坝体以及左岸黄土台地进行强夯处理，对坝体进行强夯处理在省内还是首次进行，在国内也比较少见，通过处理，坝体质量达到了设计要求，并且节约了投资，效果明显。     

以企业再造思想振兴东北老工业基地

从企业再造理论产生的背景和东北老工业基地的实际情况来看,在振兴东北老工业基地的实践中应贯彻企业再造思想.要以企业再造思想为指导,把整个东北地区看做一个大组织,搞好地区的文化建设;要从企业再造理论的精神实质出发,建立新的完善的市场机制;要坚持企业再造思想所强调的三个核心原则,搞好东北地区的行政改革.     

Foods produced using biotechnology: how does the law protect consumers?

This paper addresses the following subjects: biotechnology and consumers, concern about risks, consumer acceptance, labelling of foods produced using biotechnology, the legal approach to consumer protection, and consumer protection policies relating to biotechnology products in the European Union, the United States, Turkey and global institutions such as the Convention for Biological Diversity (CBD) and the World Trade Organisation (WTO). It is likely that biotechnology will gain ground much more rapidly in the twenty‐first century than in the past. Despite rapid, detailed and precise advances in gene technology, its applications have not been the received with a great deal of consumer enthusiasm. Consumers have approached genetically modified foods with considerable apprehension and opposition. Consumer concerns about bioengineered food products focus on the questions of human health, environmental and social risks and benefits. The most important stages in the process of marketing new foods produced using biotechnology are to demonstrate user need and consumer acceptance. Generally, the technical complexity of biotechnology makes it difficult for consumers to understand details of the product and the specific attributes of biotechnology applications. Scientific uncertainty, the nature of consumer concerns and general reluctance to accept biotechnology products, increase the importance of consumer protection. Legal protection is a very important factor in the solution of new social problems related to technological advances. More specifically, consumer and environmental law support consumer protection related to foods produced with biotechnology. The basic principles of consumer law can be re‐formulated as consumer rights. Environmental law is a new phenomenon, but precautionary principles and public participation in decision‐making for environmental law are relevant to consumer protection relating to bioengineered food products.     

英国养老保险制度浅析

英国是世界上最早建立社会保障制度的国家之一。英国建立的多层次养老体系以及一直贯彻的“普遍性”原则、“最低”原则和“个人责任”原则，值得我们这样一个发展中的经济转型国家研究和借鉴。     

东北老工业基地物流标准体系的构建研究

东北老工业基地的发展要求有快速高效的物流产业做支撑,而现有物流标准的多样性无法满足物流产业的发展需要,急需建立规范统一的物流标准体系.本文旨在枸建较为健全的中国东北老工业基地的物流标准体系,推动物流标准化战略,促进东北老工业基地物流体系效率的提高和物流产业的发展.