Inflation,real economic growth and unemployment expectations: an empirical analysis based on the ECB survey of professional forecasters

Expectations are at the centre of modern macroeconomic theory and policymakers. In this article, we examine the predictive ability and the consistency properties of macroeconomic expectations using data of the European Central Bank (ECB) Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). In particular, we provide evidence on the properties of forecasts for three key macroeconomic variables: the inflation rate, the growth rate of real gross domestic product and the unemployment rate.     

基于“天空地”一体化技术的安全监测系统建设与应用

西藏江达县白格村金沙江右岸于2018年10月11日和2018年11月3日先后发生2次大规模滑坡—堰塞湖堵江事件,溃堰洪水对下游拉哇库区不良地质体的稳定性造成不同程度的影响。为保障下游水电站建设安全,对拉哇库区主要不良地质体建立了基于星载InSAR技术、无人机技术和地面传感器实时监测的“天空地”一体化监测预警体系,以多维空间采集技术获取变形信息,通过智能监控平台对信息及时进行处理、分析和可视化呈现,利用平台、短信等方式向相关人员进行分级告警,取得了较好的应用效果。     

Re‐vitalizing money demand in the Euro area. Still valid at the zero‐lower bound

The analysis of monetary developments has always been a cornerstone of the ECB's monetary analysis and, thus, of its overall monetary policy strategy. In this respect, money demand models provide a framework for explaining monetary developments and assessing price stability over the medium term. It is a well‐documented fact in the literature that, when interest rates are at the zero‐lower bound, the analysis of money stocks become even more important for monetary policy. Therefore, this paper re‐investigates the stability properties of M3 demand in the euro area in the light of the recent economic crisis. A cointegration analysis is performed over the sample period 1983 Q1 and 2015 Q1 and leads to a well‐identified model comprising real money balances, income, the long‐term interest rate and the own rate of M3 holdings. The specification appears to be robust against the Lucas critique of a policy dependent parameter regime, in the sense that no signs of breaks can be found when interest rates reach the zero‐lower bound. Furthermore, deviations of M3 from its equilibrium level do not point to substantial inflation pressure at the end of the sample. Excess liquidity models turn out to outperform the autoregressive benchmark, as they deliver more accurate CPI inflation forecasts, especially at the longer horizons. The inclusion of unconventional monetary policy measures does not contradict these findings.     

乐滩灌区输水隧洞穿合山煤矿采空区处理设计

分析了乐滩灌区工程北干渠溯河隧洞段长约1.06 km穿合山煤矿采空区的地质情况.借鉴高速公路煤矿采空区的成功处理经验,通过科学分析,对采空区变形和区域内覆岩的稳定性做了评价,论述了输水线路穿采空区段采取全充填压力注浆法的工程处理方法.     

珠江河口区水环境整体数学模型研究

根据珠江河口区的特点，建立了珠江河口区水流，泥沙及含氟度的整体联解数学模型，探讨了联解的计算模式；利用珠江三角洲和河口区水流泥沙、含氟度连续条件，把珠江三角洲网河区一维水沙、含氟度输移数学模型和河口区二维水沙、含氟度输移数学模型进行联解。同时采用最新的地形资料并选用洪、中、枯水及大、中、小潮等多种水文组合条件对该模型进行分区验证和整体验证，模型验证成果满足精度要求。     

Design Methodology and Area Sensitivity Analysis of Horizontal Subsurface Flow Constructed Wetlands

An approach is presented to satisfy the demand for simple criteria, guidelines and models for the preliminary sizing of horizontal subsurface flow (SF) constructed wetland systems. This approach eliminates time-consuming calculations and iterations by providing graphical solutions for wetland system sizing. Therefore, it can be used for the preliminary assessment of new or performance evaluation of existing subsurface flow constructed wetland systems. The validity of this methodology is checked with data from existing systems and is found to be quite satisfactory. This methodology is combined with simple equations predicting the maximum wetland capacity in summer, so as to assist designers in sizing installations in tourist areas with increased summer populations. Furthermore, based on this methodology, a sensitivity analysis is performed of the area requirements for wastewaters of various strengths and various design conditions and performance criteria. The results provide a useful overview to engineers and further simplify the design methodology of new subsurface flow constructed wetland systems.     

完善欠发达地区在区域不平衡发展中的促动机制

区域不平衡发展是一个普遍的规律,欠发达地区应根据不平衡发展理论,吸取经验教训,建立科学的不平衡发展促动机制。     

新疆平原区降水入渗补给地下水研究

以新疆昌吉地下水均衡试验站测得的降水入渗补给地下水量资料为基础 ,讨论了影响降水入渗补给地下水的因素 ,计算了潜水年降水入渗补给系数 ,建立了年降水入渗补给系数与潜水埋深间的经验公式     

佛山市中心组团桥梁群对河道影响的数值分析

在不同频率流量和阻水程度条件下,采用一维明渠非恒定流网河数学模型,分析规划中的佛山市桥梁群对区间河道洪季行洪、枯季水环境的影响,计算洪季不同频率洪峰流量下规划桥梁群对区间河道行洪洪水位、分流比的影响,枯季时规划桥梁群对区间河道过流量、分流比的影响,结果表明,利用一维网河数学模型计算佛山市中心组团规划桥梁群对区间河道断面平均水位、流量和流速的影响,结果有足够的数值精度,是可信的。     

关于浙北地区城乡供水一体化问题的研究——以H县为例

对浙北地区县域范围内城乡供水现状进行了分析，指出：要实现自来水供应一体化，面临着行政管理体制和水务运作体制方面的问题，并对解决这两方面的问题提出了对策。