水平岩层软弱基座危岩体演化过程研究

以重庆市甄子岩29号危岩体为研究对象，基于现场调查和分析解剖，建立UDEC离散元数值计算模型，对其演化变形过程进行模拟分析。研究表明，在巨大的自重作用下，由于基座岩体岩质软，岩体较破碎，且基座外侧为直立的陡崖，具有完整的临空面，从而使基座岩体易发生压缩流变及剪切流变，进而使危岩体存在滑移垮塌的危险。     

Bitcoin price and its marginal cost of production: support for a fundamental value

This study back-tests a marginal cost of production model proposed to value the digital currency Bitcoin. Results from both conventional regression and vector autoregression (VAR) models show that the marginal cost of production plays an important role in explaining Bitcoin prices, challenging recent allegations that Bitcoins are essentially worthless. Even with markets pricing Bitcoin in the thousands of dollars each, the valuation model seems robust. The data show that a price bubble that began in the Fall of 2017 resolved itself in early 2018, converging with the marginal cost model. This suggests that while bubbles may appear in the Bitcoin market, prices will tend to this bound and not collapse to zero.     

Application of collective knowledge diffusion in a social network environment

ABSTRACT

We present a group dynamics model that shows knowledge integration as a process occurring over time. As each individual in the group contact others, his own knowledge changes, and over time the collective knowledge is obtained. This allows modeling knowledge diffusion in a social network and while the models presented in this paper are not competitive in that area, they approach the problem from previously unconsidered direction. We test the behavior of the model in a multi-agent simulation and we test a simple advertisement campaign in a social network. We provide discussion of elements needed for making model more competitive.     

Simulated recruitment of riparian trees and shrubs under natural and regulated flow regimes on the Wisconsin River,USA

Models that link ecological responses to hydrologic changes are important for assessing the effects of flow regulation on aquatic and riparian ecosystems. Based on the Recruitment Box Model, a graphical model used to prescribe environmental flows for cottonwood (Populus spp.) recruitment, we designed a simulation model to represent the influence of river flow dynamics on seedling recruitment of riparian pioneer woody plants. The model simulates the influence of temporal patterns of river stage on dispersal, germination, initial recruitment and over‐winter survival of first‐year seedlings of riparian pioneer shrubs and trees. We used the model to simulate seedling recruitment patterns for five species (Acer saccharinum, Betula nigra, Populus deltoides, Salix nigra and Salix exigua) on the Wisconsin River (Wisconsin, USA) under three flow scenarios: historic (1935–2002), simulated natural (1915–1975) and simulated regulated flows (1915–1975). Simulation results agreed well with field‐observed relative differences among years (1997–2000) in seedling densities for the five focal species. Simulated successful recruitment years were highly synchronous among species, but species differed in their sensitivity to flows at different times during the growing season, consistent with among‐species differences in seed dispersal timing. Comparison of simulated natural and regulated flows for 1915–1975 showed that flow regulation decreased monthly flow variability, increased late summer to winter baseflow and reduced the magnitude of spring peaks. Simulated recruitment and over‐winter survival of tree seedlings of all species was enhanced under the regulated flow scenario, likely due to increased summer baseflow and reductions in peak flood magnitude. Our analyses show the utility of extending the Recruitment Box Model to include multiple species of riparian shrubs and trees, and the effects of post‐colonization flows on their recruitment success. However, some key functional relationships between flow patterns and woody seedling demography (e.g. shear stress thresholds for seedling mortality) have not been adequately quantified and merit further study. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

伶仃洋三维潮流输沙的数值模拟

作者使用垂向坐标变换技术，结合有限差分方法建立了三维潮流输沙的数学模型。为了增加模型的稳定性和减少数值耗散，对悬沙对流扩散方程中的水平对流项采用三阶迎风格式离散。应用本模型对伶仃洋的枯季和洪季的潮流输沙的悬沙场进行了数值模拟，将模拟结果与实测资料进行比较，二者吻合较好。模拟结果分析表明：伶仃洋悬沙运动主要集中在西滩，对伶仃航道影响不大；洪季水体含沙浓度高于枯季；水体含沙浓度沿水深存在浓度梯度，且洪季的浓度梯度明显大于枯季。     

大坝安全监控专家系统中的知识处理

在介绍产生式规则及其数学模型的基础上，论述了用成熟的关系数据库 技术来表示和存储产生式规则表示的专家知识的方法，较好地解决了知识的存储和管理问题 。同时，利用关系数据库中实体间的关系，很容易将分散存储的规则元素组合成规则供推理 时使用。在分析了大坝安全监控专家系统知识特点的基础上举例说明了用关系数据库表 示产生式规则的具体方法。     

Simulating the Evolution of the Implied Distribution

Motivated by the implied stochastic volatility literature (Britten–Jones and Neuberger, forthcoming; Derman and Kani, 1997; Ledoit and Santa–Clara, 1998) this paper proposes a new and general method for constructing smile–consistent stochastic volatility models. The method is developed by recognising that option pricing and hedging can be accomplished via the simulation of the implied risk neutral distribution. We devise an algorithm for the simulation of the implied distribution, when the first two moments change over time. The algorithm can be implemented easily, and it is based on an economic interpretation of the concept of mixture of distributions. It can also be generalised to cases where more complicated forms for the mixture are assumed.     

抽水蓄能电站运行方式和电网经济效益分析

用计算机模拟法建立模拟模型，对选定的系统进行生产模拟，统计计算出电网系统投入不同抽水蓄能容量时所发生的系统运行总燃料费用（包括抽水蓄能电站的抽水费）和系统的负荷缺电力时间概率（LOLP）等指标。通过对计算结果的分析，得出不同系统在投入不同容量抽水蓄能机组和采取不同运行方式的情况下，其运行总燃料费用的边际成本和LOLP的边际值的变化规律，并且对电网的经济效益进行合理分析。从而为抽水蓄能电站的规划和投资建设提供理论依据，推动抽水蓄能电站的发展，促使我国电源结构趋向合理。     

吉林省特大干旱灾害对粮食的影响及其对策

本文通过分析我省历史发生的特大干旱灾害事件，论述了不同时期特大干旱对粮食产量的严重影响。提出了21世纪特大干旱的研究与对策。     

社会主义市场经济的矛盾和问题

市场经济的主要矛盾是生产与消费的矛盾，它决定商品与货币、供给与需求、总供给与总需求的矛盾。社会主义市场经济的主要矛盾是社会主义制度与市场经济体制的矛盾。当前存在的主要问题是生产相对过剩、消费需求不足，分配不够公平、贫富差距过大，市场秩序混乱、腐败现象严重，资源消耗过度、环境状况恶化，等等。只有正确处理社会主义市场经济的矛盾和问题，处理好公有制和私有制、计划与市场、效率与公平、自力更生与对外开放等各方面的关系，才能促进国民经济又好又快地发展。