Motives behind retailers’ post-entry expansion - Evidence from the Chinese luxury fashion market

This study aims to examine the motives behind retailers’ post-entry expansion in foreign markets. Through case studies of eleven participating luxury fashion retailers in China, qualitative data was collected from twenty-two executive interviews. Although their initial market entry was driven by both reactive (push) and proactive (pull) factors, the motives behind their post-entry expansion have become predominantly proactive, especially long-term growth strategies, the ambition to extend their brands and retail formats to more cities, and the experiences gained in entry markets. The desire to optimize the retail store portfolio through multiple channel strategies have slowed down the expansions of physical stores.     

Operational risk quantified with spectral risk measures: a refined closed-form approximation

The quantification of operational risk has become an important issue as a result of the new capital charges required by the Basel Capital Accord (Basel II) to cover the potential losses of this type of risk. In this paper, we investigate second-order approximation of operational risk quantified with spectral risk measures (OpSRMs) within the theory of second-order regular variation (2RV) and second-order subexponentiality. The result shows that asymptotically two cases (the fast convergence case and the slow convergence) arise depending on the range of the second-order parameter. We also show that the second-order approximation under 2RV is asymptotically equivalent to the slow convergence case. A number of Monte Carlo simulations for a range of empirically relevant frequency and severity distributions are employed to illustrate the performance of our second-order results. The simulation results indicate that our second-order approximations tend to reduce the estimation errors to a great degree, especially for the fast convergence case, and are able to capture the sub-extremal behavior of OpSRMs better than the first-order approximation. Our asymptotic results have implications for the regulation of financial institutions, and may provide further insights into the measurement and management of operational risk.     

水文序列相依变异识别的RIC定阶准则——以自回归模型为例

水文过程相依性是水文变异的主要表现形式之一,应用自回归模型对其进行拟合时合理确定模型阶数是一个难点问题。本文在分析AIC和BIC准则的基础上,提出了一种以原序列与其相依成分的相关系数作为拟合度指标,同时借用信息熵形式的函数式,作为模型不确定性度量指标的自回归模型定阶准则(简称RIC准则)。以AR(1)、AR(2)、AR(3)和AR(4)模型为例进行统计试验,将不同序列长度下该准则的定阶准确率与其他定阶准则进行比较,试验结果表明,RIC准则对于上述模型均具有较好的适应性,且定阶准确率远高于AIC准则,其中对于前三阶模型RIC准则优于BIC准则,但四阶模型略低于BIC准则。RIC准则的优势是可以同时满足模型定阶、相依程度分级与模型检验的需求,将其应用于实测水文序列分析,结果显示,该准则能较准确地识别自回归模型的阶数,且符合提出的"相依有变异而残差无变异的最小阶数"的检验标准。     

灰局势决策在水利工程开发方案优选中的应用

针对水利工程开发方案优选具有多目标、多层次等特点,建立灰局势决策模型并应用变异系数法确定评价指标权重。利用该模型对灌区改建扩建规划方案进行优选,结果表明这是一种有效的方法。     

珠江河口区水环境整体数学模型研究

根据珠江河口区的特点，建立了珠江河口区水流，泥沙及含氟度的整体联解数学模型，探讨了联解的计算模式；利用珠江三角洲和河口区水流泥沙、含氟度连续条件，把珠江三角洲网河区一维水沙、含氟度输移数学模型和河口区二维水沙、含氟度输移数学模型进行联解。同时采用最新的地形资料并选用洪、中、枯水及大、中、小潮等多种水文组合条件对该模型进行分区验证和整体验证，模型验证成果满足精度要求。     

应用改进BP网络对潼关高程的预测

作者在分析了影响汛前和汛后潼关高程变化值的因素的基础上，利用改进BP网络模型对非特征汛期和汛期潼关高程的变化值进行了计算。计算中不采用潼关的绝对高程，而用高程的变化量作为网络的较出物正量，从而减少计算误差，同时又能客观地考虑各影响因子的作用。改进后的BP模型学习时间短，精度满足要求。用该模型计算的潼关高程变化趋势与实际水库调度运行中的高程基本吻合。     

Expanding the analytical potential of channel locational probability maps using cellular statistics

The planimetric shifts in channel location of large alluvial rivers are a critical component in the creation of diverse structures and functions in riverine habitats. Engineered management schemes must also compensate for this type of channel change to protect resources and maintain navigation channels. The stability of the Lower Mississippi River channel was assessed through an analysis of historical records of channel position produced and archived by the United States Army Corps of Engineers. Channel location was recorded for the years 1765, 1820, 1881, 1915, 1930, 1937, 1960 and 1970. Channel stability was measured by two introduced metrics on a cell‐by‐cell basis: (1) the standard deviation of Euclidean distance to a channel cell for the entire period of record, and (2) the rate of Euclidean distance change between years in the period of record. At a coarse spatial scale, channel instability increased in the downstream direction. The variability of channel stability also increased in the downstream direction. Analysis of this variability identified alternating areas of high and low stability occurring with greater frequency as distance downstream increased. These findings are validated by past studies of channel stability along the Lower Mississippi River. As a result, the proposed metrics provide a consistent, quantitative, efficient and cost‐effective means of identifying areas of channel instability at several spatial scales. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

永定新河治理工程几个关键问题的研究

永定新河是天津市防洪的北部防线。由于受海相来沙淤积 ,河道行洪能力大幅度下降。针对永定新河治理工程设计中涉及到的河道淤积治理方案、闸位比选、防潮闸结构型式及施工方法、闸下减淤清淤措施等诸多问题进行了分析和研究 ,提出了相应的措施和建议     

佛山市中心组团桥梁群对河道影响的数值分析

在不同频率流量和阻水程度条件下,采用一维明渠非恒定流网河数学模型,分析规划中的佛山市桥梁群对区间河道洪季行洪、枯季水环境的影响,计算洪季不同频率洪峰流量下规划桥梁群对区间河道行洪洪水位、分流比的影响,枯季时规划桥梁群对区间河道过流量、分流比的影响,结果表明,利用一维网河数学模型计算佛山市中心组团规划桥梁群对区间河道断面平均水位、流量和流速的影响,结果有足够的数值精度,是可信的。     

明渠断面水流流速与边界剪切应力横向分布模型

天然河流的横断面多为由主槽和漫滩组成的复式断面,水流在这种断面中比在单一断面中受到更多因素影响,流态也更加复杂。通过将明渠横断面上微元体在水流方向的N-S控制方程沿水深积分,得出描述垂线平均流速和边界剪切应力横向分布的模型,并通过对实验数据的验证,确定了模型的实用性。