MODELING SOVEREIGN RISKS: FROM A HYBRID MODEL TO THE GENERALIZED DENSITY APPROACH

Motivated by the European sovereign debt crisis, we propose a hybrid sovereign default model that combines an accessible part taking into account the evolution of the sovereign solvency and the impact of critical political events, and a totally inaccessible part for the idiosyncratic credit risk. We obtain closed‐form formulas for the probability that the default occurs at critical political dates in a Markovian setting. Moreover, we introduce a generalized density framework for the hybrid default time and deduce the compensator process of default. Finally, we apply the hybrid model and the generalized density to the valuation of sovereign bonds and explain the significant jumps in long‐term government bond yields during the sovereign crisis.     

Advertising to the masses: the effects of crowding on the attention to place-based advertising

Advertising situated in environments where people congregate or pass through on their way to somewhere else benefit from being placed in such high traffic areas. However, these strategically placed ads also suffer from conditions of human crowding that prevents them from being noticed and processed. We undertake a study of place-based advertising in a shopping mall using facial recognition software to determine the effect of human density on the attention directed to advertising. We find that as human density increases, attention to advertising decreases, but only to a point where it begins to increase again. Our research also finds that human density plays a moderating role on the motivation to process advertising.     

Why will Trump lose the trade war?

ABSTRACT

The escalating U.S.–China trade conflicts have increasingly shadowed the outlook of the world economy. The Trump administration aims to achieve its strategic goals including reducing current account deficits, promoting the U.S. manufacturing sector, and curbing Chinese high-tech industries by waging the trade war against China. This paper argues that the current account deficits and the declining manufacturing sector in the U.S. are mainly driven by its internal structural factors, such as low saving rates, high labor costs, and rising service sector, rather than by the import competition from China. Moreover, the trade war further deteriorates the U.S. current account deficits and erode its comparative advantage, and it forces China to invest more in technological innovation and human capital, and thus promote its progress in high-tech industries. Thus, the U.S. will not be able to achieve its strategical goals and eventually lose the trade war.     

基于云概率密度分布估计的大坝监测数据分析

大坝运行监测易受自然环境和监测条件影响，存在时间和空间上的变异性，监测数据具有不确定性。以云理论的随机性和不确定性分析方法为基础，并与空间数据辐射思想相结合，建立了云滴概率密度分布估计模型，然后导出云概率密度分布函数，依据样本监测数据推求母体空间数据的分布特征，并设计了基于逆向云算法云变换的计算程序。分析陆浑水库1979~1999年测压管监测数据和位移变形数据的云概率密度分布特征和云数字特征，得出了20 a来大坝的数据分布特征和运行状态。监测数据分析结果表明，云概率密度分布估计不仅能有效合理地分析大坝的运行状态，而且能够依据云数字特征来判断监测状态和监测环境的异常变化。      

On the Current Situation and Problems of High Education Institutes Digital Libraries Development

The paper discusses the necessity and objective of digital library system, and analyzes the current situation of the high education institute digital libraries in China as well as some potential problems. Development plan is proposed for the digital library system for universities.     

农民养老问题亟待解决

农村现行的家庭养老、土地养老、集体养老正在弱化,巩固家庭养老的基础地位,强化土地保障功能,辅之以社区扶持,推行多层次养老保险,符合中国国情和农村生产力发展水平,是解决农村养老问题的必然选择.     

土石过水围堰过水期最不利工况及其流量确定

本文系统分析了影响土石过水围堰溢流工况的主要因素，提出衡量最不利工况的指标和确定员不利流量的方法，为土石过水围堰堰体下游护坡结构及消能防冲设施设计提供了理论依据。通过理论计算结果与模型试验现场观测资料数据对比分析，说明提出的过水期最不利流量判别方法是符合实际情况的。     

THE STATISTICAL DISTRIBUTION OF EXTREME VALUES OF WAVE-CURRENT FORCES ACTING ON SLENDER CIRCULAR CYLINDER IN IRREGULAR WAVES

Based on model test,the statistical distribution of extreme values of wave-current in-line forces acting on vertical circular cylinder is analyzed in this paper.It is shownthat the results calculated by the simplified method,proposed by authors,agree well with the testdata;Weibull distribution is also adoptable in the region of high KC number, and the shapeparameter a and scale parameter β are related well with KC number respectively.     

天津独流减河工程监控系统现地通信单元设计

提出一种配电网电容电流测量的新方法，在零序电压互感器的开口三角侧串联一个可调电感，通过注入一个变频恒流信号寻找配电网的谐振频率，改变可调电感的数值后寻找另一谐振频率，联立2个谐振方程求解电容电流，该方法消除了电压互感器漏抗对测量的影响。开发了配电网电容电流测量仪，经模拟试验和现场测试表明，该方法具有安全、快捷、准确等特点，适用于中性点不接地或经随调式消弧线圈接地配电网。     

一项关于农村五保供养制度的实证研究——以闽北地区为例

农村五保供养制度是一项具有中国特色保障鳏寡孤独残疾人基本生活权益的制度,也是我国农村社会保障体系的重要组成部分。在实地调查的基础上,分析了闽北地区农村五保供养的现实状况,提出了未来建设农村五保供养制度的若干思路。