Optimal Operation of Reservoir Systems using Simulated Annealing

A stochastic search technique, simulated annealing (SA), is used to optimize the operation of multiple reservoirs. Seminal application of annealing technique in general to multi-period, multiple-reservoir systems, along with problem representation and selection of different parameter values used in the annealing algorithm for specific cases is discussed. The search technique is improved with the help of heuristic rules, problem-specific information and concepts from the field of evolutionary algorithms. The technique is tested for application to a benchmark problem of four-reservoir system previously solved using a linear programming formulation and its ability to replicate the global optimum solution is examined. The technique is also applied to a system of four hydropower generating reservoirs in Manitoba, Canada, to derive optimal operating rules. A limited version of this problem is solved using a mixed integer nonlinear programming and results are compared with those obtained using SA. A better objective function value is obtained using simulated annealing than the value from a mixed integer non-linear programming model developed for the same problem. Results obtained from these applications suggest that simulated annealing can be used for obtaining near-optimal solutions for multi-period reservoir operation problems that are computationally intractable.     

共存阴离子对核酸阻锈剂在模拟混凝土孔溶液中钢筋阻锈作用的影响

将一种含有长度在20～80个碱基的各种引物的混合溶液溶解在核酸缓冲液中作为核酸阻锈剂,通过线性极化和电化学阻抗谱(EIS)两种电化学手段分别研究共存阴离子HCO_3~-和SO_4~(2-)对核酸阻锈剂在模拟混凝土孔溶液中对钢筋氯盐腐蚀的影响。利用X射线光电子能谱(XPS)分析了在有共存阴离子存在的模拟混凝土孔溶液中钢筋电极在核酸阻锈剂作用下表面膜的组成结构。结果表明:核酸阻锈剂具有良好的钢筋防腐蚀效果,共存阴离子HCO_3~-的存在使钢筋的腐蚀速率加快,但核酸的加入能明显减弱钢筋腐蚀倾向,具有和商用阻锈剂(主要成分为磷酸钠)基本相同的阻锈效率;共存阴离子SO_4~(2-)的存在加快了钢筋的腐蚀速率,且SO_4~(2-)的浓度较低时核酸阻锈剂的阻锈效率已经超过了同等条件下的商用阻锈剂。     

Convenient estimators for the panel probit model: Further results

Bertschek and Lechner (1998) propose several variants of a GMM estimator based on the period specific regression functions for the panel probit model. The analysis is motivated by the complexity of maximum likelihood estimation and the possibly excessive amount of time involved in maximum simulated likelihood estimation. But, for applications of the size considered in their study, full likelihood estimation is actually straightforward, and resort to GMM estimation for convenience is unnecessary. In this note, we reconsider maximum likelihood based estimation of their panel probit model then examine some extensions which can exploit the heterogeneity contained in their panel data set. Empirical results are obtained using the data set employed in the earlier study. Helpful comments and suggestions by Irene Bertschek and Michael Lechner are gratefully acknowledged. This paper has also benefited from comments by two anonymous referees and from seminar participants at the Center for Health Economics at the University of York. Any remaining errors are the responsibility of the author.     

The British low-wage sector and the employment prospects of the unemployed

Are low wages a way for the unemployed to switch to higher-paying jobs? Using data from the British Household Panel Survey, the labour market dynamics of unemployed, low-paid and higher-paid employed men are analysed. Moreover, the respective (un)employment duration and occupational skill level are accounted for. Results show that in general low wages significantly reduce the risk of future unemployment and increase the chances of ascending the salary ladder, especially in the case of long-term unemployment (>360 days). Furthermore, the occupational skill level has a substantial influence on the upward mobility of low-paid jobs: individuals working in the initial period in a low-paid and higher-skilled occupation have on average an 11 percentage points higher probability of entering higher pay compared to when working in a low-paid and low-skilled occupation.     

中国期权市场运作规则的制定与验证研究

笔者以郑商所期权核心规则制定和期权模拟测试结果为例进行分析。介绍中国期权市场运作研究项目背景,研究期权市场的重要功能、期权市场与期货市场关系,探讨中国期权上市的可行性以及如何进一步做好期权上市准备工作、加快上市步伐等实际运作问题。     

土壤—植物系统净化地表径流非点源 污染物实验研究

利用自行设计的6 m土槽构建土壤—植物系统,以无植被土槽为空白对照,设置不同的污染物进水浓度,采用模拟径流方式进行非点源污染净化实验。结果表明：（1）植被的存在能有效滞缓径流和提高污染物去除率,其中土壤—高羊茅系统的净化效果略优于土壤—紫花苜蓿系统,其SS、NO-3-N、NH3-N、TDP、PP去除率分别达到86.61%、25.83%、52.03%、26.53%及76.59%;（2）在本研究的进水浓度范围内,浓度变化对处理系统净化效果的影响与污染物存在状态有关,进水浓度增加后颗粒态污染物去除率无显著变化而溶解态氮去除率均出现明显下降;（3）以污染物出水浓度随径流长度的变化表征污染物截留特征,SS和PP出水浓度均随径流长度增加而呈指数降低,NO-3-N、NH3-N和TDP出水浓度随径流长度增加而呈线性降低,植被及进水浓度条件对污染物截留特征无明显影响。     

雨型对东北黑土区坡耕地土壤侵蚀影响的试验研究

降雨雨型对土壤侵蚀过程有重要的影响,也是当前土壤侵蚀研究的热点之一。通过野外原位人工模拟降雨试验,设计了次降雨中平均降雨强度、总降雨量相同的4种不同降雨雨型(均匀型:降雨强度为60mm/h;峰值型:降雨强度分布为30-90-60mm/h;延迟型:降雨强度分布为60-30-90mm/h;减弱型:降雨强度分布为90-60-30mm/h),研究降雨雨型变化对东北黑土区坡耕地土壤侵蚀的影响。结果表明:各雨型条件下休闲坡耕地径流总量的大小顺序为延迟型>减弱性>均匀型>峰值型,而土壤侵蚀总量的大小顺序为减弱型>均匀型>延迟型>峰值型。延迟型雨型的坡面径流总量是其它雨型的1.02~1.45倍,减弱型降雨的侵蚀总量分别是均匀型、延迟型和峰值型的1.03、1.36和2.68倍。同一雨强在不同降雨雨型中出现的位置不同,其产生的坡面径流量和侵蚀量对坡面总径流量、总侵蚀量的贡献率也不同,分布在降雨雨型起始位置的雨强对坡面径流量的贡献率最小;除30mm/h降雨强度外,分布在降雨雨型起始位置的雨强对坡面侵蚀的贡献率最大。研究还发现,试验设计中减弱型降雨雨型与东北黑土区夏季主要侵蚀雨型特点类似,是造成东北黑土区坡耕地土壤侵蚀相对严重的主要雨型。     

地震形成堰塞湖潜在影响范围快速评估

以汶川地震诱发的唐家山堰塞湖为研究区域,以下游各水文站点的实测水文历史数据为基础,采用模拟退火智能算法训练计算了该河段的马斯京根演算方程系数,并在给定初始条件下,快速预报了下游各个重要地区的流量变化过程。结合断面的水位流量关系得到水位变化过程。最后,使用空间信息技术得到了下游潜在淹没范围。结果表明：在溃决水位为690 m的条件下,洪水将全部淹没下游北川县城。     

城市河道的景观型堤防设计

针对城市河道的堤防成为隔阻视线通达水岸空间的屏障,影响滨河景观建设和亲水空间营建建设的不利因素,提出在满足防洪功能基础上,综合考虑堤防自身和与周边环境融合的景观价值,以及利于植物生长、生物生息的生态价值,营建景观型堤防的理念。阐述了合理确定适宜的堤线位置,选择理想景观型堤防材料的方法;并在实践中总结或创新了复式断面营建亲水空间,多种形式组合处理堤坡,以及错层建筑分隔法等消除堤防高差视觉不利影响的方法。     

基于MPI环境的并行模拟退火算法及其工程应用

介绍了基于MPI的并行编程环境;从传统的串行模拟退火算法出发,提出了并行模拟退火算法的并行思路和具体实现,给出了模拟退火算法并行实现的关键-并行随机数产生方法。最后通过一个拱坝优化设计的工程实例,说明并行模拟退火算法的正确性和高效性。