Measuring Inflation Anchoring and Uncertainty: A U.S. and Euro Area Comparison

We use several U.S. and euro‐area surveys of professional forecasters to estimate a dynamic factor model of inflation featuring time‐varying uncertainty. We obtain survey‐consistent distributions of future inflation at any horizon, both in the U.S. and the euro area. Equipped with this model, we propose a novel measure of the anchoring of inflation expectations that accounts for inflation uncertainty. Our results suggest that following the Great Recession, inflation anchoring improved in the United States, while mild de‐anchoring occurred in the euro area. As of our sample end, both areas appear to be almost equally anchored.     

Plausible versus implausible tensile price claim: Selective accessibility model approach

Retailers frequently use exaggerated price discount advertisements with a tensile price claim (TPC; e.g., “Save up to 70%”) to attract consumers because they expect that once consumers enter a store, they will purchase low‐ or medium‐discounted products. Drawing on the selective accessibility model, this study investigated the way in which an implausibly high maximum level of savings stated in a TPC influences consumers’ expected price discount (EPD) and perceptions of actual price discounts across different types of TPCs (i.e., TPC stating a maximum level and TPC stating a range of savings). This study also investigated two situations in which consumers have previous knowledge of a product’s price discount versus when they have less or no knowledge of the discount. For both conditions, a single‐anchor TPC (i.e., “Save up to Y%”) that stated an implausible maximum level of savings led to a higher EPD and lower perceptions of the deal (i.e., perceived savings, price fairness, and perceived value) with respect to the actual price discount than did a TPC with a plausible maximum level of savings. In contrast, when the TPC stated two anchors (i.e., “Save X–Y%”) and consumers had knowledge of the price discount, their EPDs assimilated only toward the plausible anchor (X), and ignored the implausibly high maximum price discount (Y), resulting in a lower EPD and higher perceptions of the deal of the actual price discounts than a TPC that stated a plausibly high maximum level of savings. In contrast, when consumers had no knowledge of the price discount, their EPDs only adjusted toward the more plausible anchor (X), regardless of whether they perceived the maximum anchor as plausible or implausible. Thus, there was no difference in consumers’ perceptions of “Save X–Y%” between implausibly and plausibly high Y%.     

预应力锚固技术在龙滩水电站高边坡工程中的应用

龙滩水电站进水口高边坡最大坡高达420m，为保证高边坡的稳定，采用预应力锚索技术。预应力锚索的加固作用非常明显，不仅为边坡的稳定提供了经济、有效的手段，而且为按期截流创造了条件。     

砂被筑坝技术在长江汊道封堵工程中的应用

抛投中小型土工织物充砂体一般用于修筑潜坝或填槽,在长江大型汊道封堵工程中的运用比较少见。大型汊道水流流速快、填筑工程量大,使坝体成型控制难度大、施工效率低,应在工程中不断优化和改进施工设计及工艺。通过加大土工织物袋体尺寸,采用边充砂边沉放的方法连续施工,形成了成熟的砂被筑坝技术。实践证明,该技术的施工机械化程度高、程序简单、施工高效、坝体成型易于控制,且运用该施工技术修筑而成的汊道封堵坝能起到预期的工程效果。     

关于斜插式基础受力的分析探讨

为优化线路的整体投资,需在线路设计各个环节进行控制,包括路径的优化、铁塔及基础的选型等,其中基础型式的选择对工程投资影响极大,文章对斜插式基础受力问题做简要分析.     

基于逐次逼近遗传算法的梯级水库优化调度

利用传统遗传算法求解水库优化调度问题时,经过遗传操作产生的新个体可能是不可行解,因此需要对其进行修正.但在梯级水库调度中,由于各时段间、水库间存在的水力电力联系,使这种修正变得复杂困难.鉴于此,提出了逐次逼近遗传算法(GASA),它可在包含不可行解的空间中寻优,并通过搜索空间的不断改变,逐渐逼近最优解.最后通过一个算例,并与离散微分动态规划法(DDDP)和逐步优化法(POA)的优化结果进行比较,说明了该方法的可行性与有效性.     

预应力锚索工作性状数值模拟分析

预应力锚索作为一种有效的岩土体支护技术,在软土场地中的应用较少,但是该结构的经济性较好,在一些软土基坑支护中得到应用.为了分析预应力锚索在软土场地中的工作性状,通过数值模拟手段计算了预应力锚索的轴力分布、锚固段长度的影响等问题,得出锚索在岩体和软土中的工作状态存在差异,因此实际应用中应区别对待.     

混凝土中锚杆锚固强度的SVM回归模型

锚杆锚固强度是评价锚杆锚固质量的主要因素之一,而混凝土中锚杆锚固强度受多因素影响,各因素间也具有复杂的关联。应用支持向量机回归原理,以混凝土龄期、锚杆直径和锚固长度3个因素作为输入列向量构建样本集,选用径向基核函数建立混凝土中锚杆锚固强度的支持向量机回归预测模型。利用30组锚固强度实验数据中2/3的数据作为训练样本,剩余1/3的数据作为预测样本,对锚固强度进行回归预测,将预测结果与试验结果和BP网络计算结果进行对比分析。研究结果表明:此模型预测精度高,具有良好的泛化能力,预测结果具有可信性,将SVM方法运用于混凝土中锚杆锚固强度的预测是合理有效的,为锚固强度的预测提供了一条新的途径。     

基于连续小波变换的径流分维研究

讨论了径流时间序列的统计自相似性描述指标——分形维数(分维)的连续小波变换系数估计思路，给出了其基本步骤。将该法运用于黄河流域主要水文站年径流的分维计算，同时与极差分析法估计值进行对比，研究表明，建议的连续小波变换分维估计法是可行的。