基于GM(1,1)模型的造纸业上市公司财务研究——以冠豪高新为例

财务风险是企业调整发展战略、提升管理水平的重要参考指标之一。财务风险预测模型的建立能够预测企业在中短期内的财务风险,为企业敲响警钟。以造纸业上市公司冠豪高新为例,选取近五年财务杠杆系数为风险指标,建立GM(1,1)风险预测模型,结果显示该公司短期内财务风险呈下降趋势,调查发现这主要得益于产品成本的降低以及营销策略的改变。     

图书在版编目研究

简述了英、美等国图书在版编目的发展和中国实施在版编目的意义、作用及特点,对中国实施图书在版编目提出了设想和建议。     

运行电站爆破震动控制研究

结合大渡河龚咀水电站下游河床整治爆破开挖拓宽，重点研究了爆破震动对运行电站机组及其仪表的影响，探讨了爆破震动安全判据和控制标准，用了若干实际工程采用的经验指标进行对比分析，所得结论意见可供同类工程作为爆震安全控制参考。     

支流影响下的水库水温预测模型

采用宽度平均的立面二维水温模型,通过分析支流和主库之间的相互影响,提出了支流与主库耦合的简化方法,建立了考虑支流影响的水库水温模型。在考虑有无支流影响的条件下,对水库水温分布、水库下泄水温和坝前垂向水温分布均作了比较,结果表明支流对水库水温分布有一定的影响,所建立支流与主库耦合的立面二维水温模型能够较好地反映存在支流影响的水库水温分布,预测水库水温分布比较合理。     

Determinants of Current Account Imbalances in 16 OECD Countries: An Out-Of-Sample Perspective

We employ panel data as well as country-specific models to uncover empirically the determinants of current account imbalances. We find evidence of slope heterogeneity likely rendering the fixed-effect estimator inconsistent. Mean group estimation is followed to overcome the latter difficulty. Both estimation techniques are evaluated by means of in- and out-of-sample criteria. The mean group estimator outperforms the fixed-effect approach and, moreover, only three economic variables are found to impact on the current account balance significantly. These are the government budget balance, the domestic output gap and the changes of the terms of trade. We finally propose a parsimonious dynamic model of the current account, including only these variables and illustrate that it has similar predictive accuracy as country-specific benchmark models. JEL no. F32, C23, C53     

"十五"农村水电发展分析与"十一五"发展预测

本文分析了"十五"期间农村水电发展情况,对"十一五"农村水电发展政策环境及增长情况进行了预测。     

谈谈酒店商务楼层的起源与发展

商务楼层作为一种特定的楼层，在世界各地兴起和迅速发展。通过阐述商务楼层的意义、起源与发展，揭示商务楼层与其他楼层的不同之处，目的是促使商务楼层进一步完善发展。     

原甲酸三乙酯生产技术动向

对原甲酸三乙酯的原料来源、成本、生产技术信息、技术开发相关情况作了介绍，有益于该产品的生产技术开发。     

东江水库诱发地震探讨

阐述了东江水库基本情况，通过对库区及周围的地质构造特点、诱发地震监测，总结出东江水库地震的活动特征和诱发地震活动趋势。     

Trends in Hydrological Parameters of a Southern Brazilian Watershed and its Relation to Human Induced Changes

The Piracicaba river basin is a subtropical watershed located in the southeastern region of Brazil. With an area of 12 400 km², the basin is a typical example of new landscape resulting from development in tropical and sub-tropical regions: establishment of intensive industrial and agricultural processes were followed by significant population growth and water management. This scenario has led to significant increase in water demand and decrease in water quality. The main objective of this study is the detection of changes in the patterns of flow and precipitation in the basin, and its possible relation to man-induced changes. Statistical analyses were performed on records of precipitation, evapotranspiration and streamflow, from 1947 to 1991. Precipitation and evapotranspiration totals showed significant increasing trends for the entire basin. From eight streamflow gauge stations, half showed significant decreasing trend. The most probable cause of such trends is the export of water from the basin to the metropolitan region of São Paulo city.