防洪堤结构风险计算模型探讨

本文根据防洪堤运行的实际，定义了防洪堤结构的风险，并提出了防洪堤结构风险计算的数学模型；其次，分析了土体的物理力学等的不确定性，并用MC方法计算防洪堤结构的不确定性.算例结果表明，防洪堤结构风险相对于水文风险而言是不能忽视的。     

Sustainability in the prospective scenarios methods: A case study of scenarios for biodiesel industry in Brazil,for 2030

In order to build prospective scenarios for biodiesel industry in Brazil, with a sustainable perspective, it was necessary to develop a cross-disciplinary work to include Sachs’ dimensions of sustainability into the scenarios method. This meant linking concepts from different disciplines, without transforming it in a new discipline. In order to support the proposition for the new method, a study case is presented, the framework for the biodiesel scenarios in Brazil, by 2030. An in-depth interview was used to test the proposition of having the sustainability dimensions as driving forces. The result was the identification of a critical uncertainty composed of various aspects related the response to climate change and environmental conservation. The scenario storylines that were developed based on the critical uncertainties showed that sustainable options for the future are possible if the mental maps are enlarged to see beyond the business as usual.The results show that the scenarios storylines go through social, environmental and economic aspects, supported by other aspects like the territorial and political. Also it showed that sustainable options are possible if the mental maps are enlarged to see beyond the business as usual.     

The state of research on technological uncertainties, social uncertainties and emerging markets: A multidisciplinary literature review

The objective of this research work is to study the progress of research on technological uncertainties, social uncertainties and emerging markets and outline and identify the key disciplines, journals, articles and authors. For this the author studied the existing literature from the various fields in which technological uncertainties, social uncertainties and emerging markets research work have been published using ISI Web of Knowledge database. The paper finds that there is increasing research work on technological uncertainties, social uncertainties and emerging markets and the bibliographical search resulted in ninety-one documents written by one-hundred-sixty-one authors in eighty-four journals in seventy-two disciplines. The five major disciplines and their underlying journals are business and economics, agriculture, psychology, public administration, and environmental sciences and ecology accounting for majority of publications. In journals the most prolific, measured by number of articles published are Harvard Business Review, Social Science and Medicine, World Development, and Higher Education; and most influential, measured by the global citation received, are Harvard Business Review, Social Science and Medicine and Sociological Review. The top 10% of the journals are responsible for 23% of all publications but 85% of all global citations received. This highlights that despite the high, diverse and increasing number of journals; only few are dominating and shaping the research arena of technological uncertainties, social uncertainties and emerging markets. Further, in the ten most cited articles, no author appears more than once.     

Categorizing risks in seven large projects—Which risks do the projects focus on?

In a hierarchy of project objectives, strategic objectives will often be principally different from the operational ones. Operational objectives concern the project outputs/results, and strategic objectives concern the project goal and purpose. In this study, risks are categorized as risks to operational, long‐term, or short‐term strategic objectives, and, by studying a dataset of some 1,450 risk elements that make up the risk registers of seven large projects, we examine how operational and strategic risks are distributed in the projects. The study strongly indicates that risks to a project's strategic objectives rarely occur in the project's risk registers, though project success and failure stories indicate their importance.     

投资项目不确定性分析方法探讨

企业在进行项目投资决策中,由于很大部分的基础数据,例如产品产量、售价、成本以及投资额等因素都来自于预测或估算,因此具有很大的不确定性。为了避免投资决策失误,更好地控制风险,都需要对投资项目进行不确定分析,针对性的控制或者预防这些风险。本文就此类问题系统地进行了探讨,希望为从事项目投资的人员提供参考。     

Alternative futures and foreign direct investment in China

Chinese history is littered with sharp policy swings, and the communist era, which has not yet fully drawn to a close, has witnessed a veritable embarrassment of riches. This has provided a fertile ground for researchers engaged in crystal ball gazing. Recently, momentum has accelerated on that front, a development apparently reflecting the increasingly fluid political‐economic conditions in the country. The scenarios generated can serve as an effective reference point in planning exercises, but there is scope for solidifying the conceptual architecture. The issue of rendering them highly relevant to foreign investors, presumably very important potential consumers of the product, should also be addressed.     

故障驱动切负荷和轨迹驱动切负荷的协调优化

切负荷（LS）控制既可由故障驱动（即紧急LS）,也可由轨迹驱动（即校正LS）,大量不确定因素突出了它们之间协调的重要性。按照解耦优化-聚合协调的框架,用稳定性量化软件FASTEST分析不确定因素下的稳定性,分别优化故障驱动的LS及轨迹驱动的LS,在优化其中之一时,将另一个最新迭代结果作为仿真的外部场景,迭代到预想故障集的风险总代价不再明显减小为止。考虑某实际系统的预想故障、负荷模型和负荷水平等不确定因素,仿真证实该协调优化方法在保证系统稳定性的前提下,显著减少了控制的风险。     

圈闭勘探开发综合评价决策方法及其应用

圈闭勘探开发是一项高投资、高技术、高风险的工作。许多评价因素的不确定性给决策者带来诸多不便,造成了对圈闭含油气性及其优劣程度判断的模糊映象。而模糊数学综合评判法可以把这些模糊映象用数学方法处理,从而可对圈闭含油气性及其优劣程度进行定量分析评价     

地下水允许开采量确定的风险分析

传统的地下水允许开采量计算大都有是采用确定性模型进行的。而实际上，在其计算中存在着一些不确定性因素，它们直接影响着计算结果的精度，而“不确定性”与“风险”是紧密相联系的。为此，本文以山东省济宁市地下水资源评价为例，在详细介绍了风险分析的基本概念和风险分析方法的基础上，对地下水允许开采量的确定进行了风险分析，所采用的风险分析方法为蒙特卡罗方法，其中的随机数产生采用混合同余法。经风险分析所得结果较传统的水文地质学方法计算的结果，更符合实际情况。为在今后的地下水资源评价工作中，更加合理地、可靠地确定水源地的允许开采量提供了一种切实可行的方法，使得与地下水开采有关决策的失误减小到最低程度。     

基于向量地震动强度指标的拱坝地震易损性分析

将地震动顺河向分量的一、二阶谱加速度以及地震动横河向、顺河向分量的一阶谱加速度分别作为反映地震动强度的向量指标,建立了以拱冠位移、横缝开度和损伤体积比为性能指标的拱坝地震易损性曲面,以预测拱坝在不同强度水平的地震作用下达到各级破损的概率。以白鹤滩拱坝为研究对象,考虑地震动以及材料的不确定性对拱坝进行增量动力分析,将分析结果取对数后进行二元线性回归,得到概率地震需求模型,然后建立了不同性能指标的拱坝地震易损性曲面,并对基于向量地震动强度指标和基于标量地震动强度指标进行拱坝地震易损性分析的效率进行了比较。研究结果表明:基于向量IM的易损性分析能够显著降低拱坝地震需求预测的离散性,同时基于向量IM比标量IM更加高效,采用基于向量IM的地震易损性曲面对拱坝进行易损性分析能更加准确地评估拱坝的抗震性能。