What Prompts the People＇s Bank of China to Change Its Monetary Policy Stance？ Evidence from a Discrete Choice Model

In the present paper, we model the policy stance of the People＇s Bank of China （PBC） as a latent variable, and the discrete changes in the reserve requirement ratio, policy interest rates, and the scale of open market operations are taken as signals of movement of this latent variable. We run a discrete choice regression that relates these observed indicators of policy stance to major trends of macroeconomic and financial developments, which are represented by common factors extracted from a large number of variables. The predicted value of the estimated model can then be interpreted as the implicit policy stance of the PBC. In a second step, we estimate how much of the variation in the PBC＇ s implicit stance can be explained by measures of its policy objectives on inflation, growth and financial stability. We find that deviations of CPI inflation from an implicit target and deviations of broad money growth from the announced targets, but not output gaps, figure significantly in the PBC＇s policy changes.     

The effect of exchange rate changes on trade balances in the short and long run

Using generalized impulse response functions, this study tests for the trade J‐curve for three transitional central European countries – the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland – in their bilateral trade with respect to Germany. Our findings suggest that for each country there are some characteristics associated with a J‐curve effect: after a (real or nominal) depreciation the export‐to‐import ratio briefly drops to below its initial value within a few months and then rises to a long run equilibrium value higher than the initial one.     

Use of minimum risk approach in the estimation of regression models with missing observations

This article considers a linear regression model with some missing observations on the response variable and presents two estimators of regression coefficients employing the approach of minimum risk estimation. Small disturbance asymptotic properties of these estimators along with the traditional unbiased estimator are analyzed and conditions, that are easy to check in practice, for the superiority of one estimator over the other are derived. Received May 2001     

三峡工程左厂房坝导墙抗震计算分析

 用反应谱理论对三峡左厂房坝导墙3种典型设计断面型式进行了抗震计算分析比较，得出了其自振特性及地震动位移、动应力响应。对选定的设计断面型式Ⅲ进行了抗拉应力强度安全性评价。     

环境荷载联合作用下海上风电结构动力响应分析

为研究海上风电结构在复杂的海洋环境中承受环境荷载(风、波、冰、流)的联合作用时,结构产生的剧烈的动力响应问题。文章以三脚架基础海上风电结构为研究对象,采用ANSYS有限元软件建立其整体模型并进行荷载(风、波、流和风、冰、流)联合作用下的静力校核,通过对环境荷载联合作用下的三脚架基础海上风电结构进行瞬态分析,掌握其动力响应的特性及规律。结果表明:三脚架基础结构的一、二阶自振频率均为0.285Hz,在所选风机允许的频率范围内,可以保证整体结构不会与风机转动发生共振;风荷载在风、波、流荷载联合作用下主导控制结构响应的稳态波动,冰荷载在风、冰、流荷载联合作用下主导控制结构的稳态振动过程;塔筒顶端呈现的位移和加速度响应均远大于三脚架基础顶端;环境荷载联合作用下结构动力响应是环境荷载单独作用下动力响应叠加的结果。     

某抽水蓄能电站地下厂房动力特性研究

抽水蓄能电站具有高水头、大容量、快转速的特点导致振动问题特别突出,强烈的振动会导致机组以及厂房薄弱结构部位发生破坏,影响电站的安全稳定运行。结合某在建抽水蓄能电站,分析了可能与厂房结构发生共振的振源,研究了边界条件、材料特性对结构自振特性的影响,结合粘弹性人工边界条件,分析了在机组动荷载作用下厂房各部位的动力响应规律。     

提高企业对外部环境适应能力的策略分析

企业的发展离不开外部环境,适者生存是企业发展的必然规律。因此,如何适应外部环境的变化并做出应有的响应,是企业发展过程中面临的重要课题,本文在提高企业对外部环境的适应能力方面进行了初步的探讨。     

A two-stage stratified Warner’s randomized response model using optimal allocation

This paper applies Kim and Wardes (2004) stratified Warners randomized response model to Mangat and Singhs (1990) two-stage randomized response model. The proposed stratified randomized response model has an optimal allocation and a large gain in precision. Hence, the estimator based on the proposed method is more efficient than Kim and Wardes (2004) and Mangat and Singhs (1990) estimators under the conditions presented in both the case of completely truthful reporting and that of not completely truthful reporting by the respondents.     

数字时代企业环境审计模式创新——基于环保政策响应机制的研究

企业规避环保责任的机会主义行为导致政府环保政策成效不显著。基于利益相关者理论构建环保政策利益相关者模型,并从环保权力、责任和信息三个角度分析企业的环保政策响应机制。研究发现：由于消费者缺位以及信息不对称等因素的影响,企业的环保政策响应水平较弱。政府应将环保政策施加于消费者,通过消费者来约束企业的行为;审计主体应当转变现有的审计模式,运用数字技术,与消费者合作共同完成审计监督的工作。基于此,提出一种基于消费者需求引导的综合环保政策及新型企业环境审计模式,建议政府应重视数字技术对产业的改造升级,充分考虑消费者的因素来制定环保政策并加大对企业污染数据实时监控的普及。     

基于微结构指标响应曲面法的固化盐渍土力学特性分析

固化土力学强度指标与固化土结构变化的关系是盐渍土特性研究中的重要问题。选取颗粒粒度分维D_(ps)、颗粒定向分维D_(di)、等效直径D_e为试验因素,利用响应曲面法进行试验。响应曲面模型可以对固化土的力学性能指标进行分析和预测,利用该模型研究石灰固化盐渍土的力学强度指标与最优微结构参数之间的关系,并进行了验证。结果表明,固化土微结构最优指标是粒度分维D_(ps)为0.8、颗粒定向分维D_(di)为0.93、等效直径D_e为1.75时,固化土无侧限抗压强度q达到1.636 MPa,与实测值仅相差0.038 MPa;黏聚力c为456.7 k Pa,与实测值完全一致;内摩擦角为39.6°,与实测值仅相差0.2°。该模型为探讨各类固化盐渍土物理化学指标、各掺加料比例及固化土微结构之间相互关系提供了借鉴和依据。