Measuring Inflation Anchoring and Uncertainty: A U.S. and Euro Area Comparison

We use several U.S. and euro‐area surveys of professional forecasters to estimate a dynamic factor model of inflation featuring time‐varying uncertainty. We obtain survey‐consistent distributions of future inflation at any horizon, both in the U.S. and the euro area. Equipped with this model, we propose a novel measure of the anchoring of inflation expectations that accounts for inflation uncertainty. Our results suggest that following the Great Recession, inflation anchoring improved in the United States, while mild de‐anchoring occurred in the euro area. As of our sample end, both areas appear to be almost equally anchored.     

仙游抽水蓄能电站尾水系统充排水试验

为检查工程质量,查找输水系统可能存在的问题并消除隐患,保障电站安全运行,福建仙游抽水蓄能电站在投产发电前,要对输水发电系统进行充水试验与放空排水试验,在试验过程中监测输水系统的应力、应变与渗漏水情况。本文以尾水系统为例,介绍了试验所应具备的工程条件、工作程序及技术要求、试验成果分析和存在问题处理等。试验表明,仙游抽水蓄能电站尾水系统设计合理,施工质量优良,结构可靠,可供同类工程参考与借鉴。     

Greater patience and monetary expenditure: How shopping with companions influences purchase decisions

Shopping with companions plays a crucial role in daily consumer activities. However, only a few studies have explored the influence of this factor on consumers’ patience. We conducted four studies, including two field studies, to investigate the effects of shopping with companions (e.g., friends and peers) on purchase decisions. We found that consumers exerted greater effort when shopping with friends and peers by spending more money and being willing to wait longer for a product. This effect could be explained by three mediators: positive emotions, negative emotions, and perceived value, in which the hedonic and social value, unlike the utilitarian value, played essential mediating roles. This study elucidates the underlying psychological processes involved in purchase decisions shaped by companions. Retailers should encourage shopping with companions to increase sales and customer retention.     

富水砂层盾构接收技术

针对富水砂层盾构接收易发生渗漏、涌砂、安全风险大等问题。在大量工程实践基础上,总结出以控制地下水为重点、坚持预防为主的施工理念,形成端头加固、止水帷幕、环箍注浆及止水装置的富水地层盾构接收技术,牢筑三道止水防线。技术成果在多项依托工程中成功应用,确保了该类地层盾构接收安全和风险可控。     

黑龙江省节水增粮行动(2012—2015年)实施方案

文章通过对黑龙江省高效节水现状,存在问题的分析,结合黑龙江省高效节水发展的支撑能力,阐述黑龙江省节水增粮目标、任务及总体布局,为黑龙江省2012—2015年节水增粮实施提供依据。     

The impacts of cattle access points on deposited sediment levels in headwater streams in Ireland

Cattle access to streams has been linked globally with degradation of stream water quality, driven largely by bank erosion and resultant instream, fine sediment deposition. The majority of evidence on such effects is however based in arid and semiarid regions of the United States and Australia, with few studies relating to cool temperate climates such as Northwest Europe. In this study, “Quorer” resuspendable sediment samples were taken from riffle geomorphic units upstream (control) and at two points downstream (pressure and recovery) of cattle access points in headwater streams in agricultural catchments in Ireland to assess levels of deposited stream sediment. Samples were taken in April/May (2016) prior to the grazing season and in October (2016) at the end of the grazing season. Sites in good‐high ecological status catchments and less than good ecological status catchments were included in the study. Higher levels of sediment were found downstream of cattle access points in both good‐high status and less than good status catchments; however, the impacts of access points were spatially confined to, in most cases, the area immediately downstream of the point of access. There was a strong correlation between deposited sediment mass and organic matter (OM) mass, with levels of OM increasing linearly with deposited sediment mass. Levels of measured sediment were negatively correlated with riparian habitat health (measured using a qualitative habitat assessment). The results of this study highlight the need for measures to prevent cattle access to headwater streams where access points can be many in order to manage local habitat quality and downstream water quality issues.     

新发展阶段中国水资源安全保障战略对策

进入新发展阶段，中国水资源安全保障需要以“节水优先、空间均衡、系统治理、两手发力”治水思路为指导，厘清问题、研判趋势、优化对策，支撑新阶段水利高质量发展。本文在全面分析我国水资源安全保障存在的突出问题与面临形势基础上，阐述了新发展阶段中国水资源安全保障的基本思路与战略路径，从保证资源安全、构建国家水网、强化供水保障、建设美丽河湖、改善水环境质量等方面提出了战略对策和需要进一步回答的重大问题，以期为完善新发展阶段中国水资源安全保障战略，全面提高国家水资源安全保障能力提供有力支撑。     

电磁精细探测法在隐伏型导水地质裂缝勘探中的应用

针对传统隐伏型导水地质裂缝勘探方法存在勘测精度较差的问题,提出电磁精细探测法探析隐伏型导水地质裂缝。依照屏蔽系数、实测场强和理论场强数据绘制综合曲线图,通过该图获取隐伏型导水地质裂缝所处位置几何阴影范围,采用层析成像法得到网格化的工作面,获取隐伏型导水地质图像。通过图像直接观测隐伏型导水地质工作面裂缝所处位置,在此基础上,观测四个电磁场分量,采用正交电磁场分量计算介质视电阻率,依据计算视电阻率数值和视电阻率分布状态研究裂缝发育情况和裂缝富水程度。结果表明:采用该方法能较为精准地获取隐伏型导水地质裂缝位置。通过裂缝位置进一步检测出隐伏型导水地质裂缝最大发育高度为63.5 m。当视电阻数值不断增加时,隐伏型导水地质裂缝和裂缝富水性逐渐减小,与实际情况较为相符,说明该种方法探析效果较好。     

The mechanism of credit risk contagion among internet P2P lending platforms based on a SEIR model with time-lag

The credit risk contagion of Internet peer-to-peer (P2P) lending platforms is an important part of Internet financial risk management and supervision. This study analyzes the contagion path of credit risk in Internet P2P lending. Based on complex network theory and the theory of infectious disease dynamics, the characteristics of Internet P2P lending development are combined to construct a SEIR model of credit risk transmission among Internet P2P lending platforms with time lag, and the robustness of the model is analyzed and proven. The influence of platform correlations, the susceptible immune rate, the platform elimination rate, contagion latency, the saturation coefficient, and the susceptibility input rate on credit risk contagion behavior among Internet P2P lending platforms is analyzed, using the equilibrium point and threshold value. The impact of each variable is analyzed by simulation. Corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are proposed to prevent and control credit risk contagion among these platforms.     

Characterizing physical habitat preferences and thermal refuge occupancy of brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) and Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) at high river temperatures

Anthropogenic influences, including climate change, are increasing river temperatures in northern and temperate regions and threatening the thermal habitats of native salmonids. When river temperatures exceed the tolerance levels of brook trout and Atlantic salmon, individuals exhibit behavioural thermoregulation by seeking out cold‐water refugia – often created by tributaries and groundwater discharge. Thermal infrared (TIR) imagery was used to map cold‐water anomalies along a 53 km reach of the Cains River, New Brunswick. Trout and salmon parr did not use all identified thermal anomalies as refugia during higher river temperature periods (>21°C). Most small‐bodied trout (8–30 cm) were observed in 80% of the thermal anomalies sampled. Large‐bodied trout (>35 cm) required a more specific set of physical habitat conditions for suitable refugia, that is, 100% of observed large trout used 30% of the anomalies sampled and required water depths >65 cm within or adjacent to the anomaly. Densities of trout were significantly higher within anomalies compared with areas of ambient river temperature. Salmon parr were less aligned with thermal anomalies at the observed temperatures, that is, 59% were found in 65% of the sampled anomalies; and densities were not significantly different within/ outside anomalies. Salmon parr appeared to aggregate at 27°C, and after several events over 27°C variability in aggregation behaviour was observed – some fish aggregated at 25°C, others did not. We stipulate this is due to variances of thermal fatigue. Habitat suitability curves were developed for velocity, temperature, depth, substrate, and deep water availability to characterize conditions preferred by fish during high‐temperature events. These findings are useful for managers as our climate warms, and can potentially be used as a tool to help conserve and enhance thermal refugia for brook trout and Atlantic salmon in similar systems.