Forecasting house prices using dynamic model averaging approach: Evidence from China

Forecasting house price has been of great interests for macroeconomists, policy makers and investors in recent years. To improve the forecasting accuracy, this paper introduces a dynamic model averaging (DMA) method to forecast the growth rate of house prices in 30 major Chinese cities. The advantage of DMA is that this method allows both the sets of predictors (forecasting models) as well as their coefficients to change over time. Both recursive and rolling forecasting modes are applied to compare the performance of DMA with other traditional forecasting models. Furthermore, a model confidence set (MCS) test is used to statistically evaluate the forecasting efficiency of different models. The empirical results reveal that DMA generally outperforms other models, such as Bayesian model averaging (BMA), information-theoretic model averaging (ITMA) and equal-weighted averaging (EW), in both recursive and rolling forecasting modes. In addition, in recent years it is found that the Google search index, instead of fundamental macroeconomic or monetary indicators, has developed greater predictive power for house price in China.     

The environment in an ‘information society’: A transition stage towards more sustainable development?

Social scientists and futurists have suggested that societal development is advancing to a novel stage, to an ‘information society’. However, the crucial qualifiers of this ‘new’ society are ambiguous. Furthermore, environmental goals have created new challenges for information society studies. This paper examines the interaction and dynamics between the information society and sustainable development, which most often manifest themselves as competing scientific and socio-political discourses. On the one hand, there is the potential for reducing the stress on the environment: the emergence of information technologies and services can lead to a dematerialisation of production and immaterialisation of consumption. On the other hand, there are risks: positive environmental effects might be overcome by the ‘rebound effect’ caused by excessive economic growth. It is concluded that further theoretical and empirical studies are needed in order to examine the complex and contradictory relationship between the information society and environmental issues.     

基于Windows NT平台下PCI总线DMA传输方法的实现

以AMCCS5 933控制芯片为例说明在WindowsNT平台下实现DMA方式传输的驱动程序的开发技术 ,采用对分发例程的设计控制DMA的读写 ,用一种灵活的方法和全新的技术实现DMA传输数据的方式 ,打破了对ReadFile和WriteFile实现DMA的常规方法 ,使程序更加易懂和易于实现 ,并且更加灵活控制读写操作     

高速网卡与主机通信技术研究

本文分析了高速网卡与主机的通信方式——基于描述符的DMA通信机制,研究了提高网卡与主机通信性能的技术——提高总线带宽和减少中断开销。     

基于PCI-1711的数据采集系统

绍一种基于PCI总线结构、16路模拟输入、DMA中断方式数据采集系统的硬件组成,及其在Visual C++6.0环境下的软件开发.整个系统具有同步误差小,操作简单、易于调试、采样速度快等特点,且系统功能模块化增加了其扩展与兼容性.重点介绍了PCI-1711驱动方式与采用的数据处理技术.经现场检测试验表明,本系统采集数据速率快、误差小(小于1%),兼容可扩展性强.     

频域LMS算法的TMS320C6701实现

面对日益激烈的市场竞争和竞争的国际化,我国许多中小企业开始了国际化经营的进程。本文分析了中小企业进行国际化经营的优势和劣势,并基于整合优势理论,对我国中小企业跨国经营的可行性和跨国经营战略的选择提出了一些思考。