数字化促进产业结构升级的时空格局及机理研究

数字化是我国产业结构升级的重要方向,对新产业增值、要素配置重组、新市场开拓起到重要促进作用。从产出结构和就业结构两个方面构建制造业升级评价指数,并采用Dagum基尼系数分析中国产业结构升级的区域差异及时空格局,同时将中国产业结构升级影响因素分为内部因素和外部因素,采用空间面板数据模型并基于两种空间权重实证分析了数字化促进我国产业结构升级机理。研究结果表明,2011—2020年我国产业结构升级水平持续提升,产业结构升级指数由0.886增长到1.434,年均增速为5.42%;区域差异呈现下降趋势,区域差距主要来源于组间差距,华北、华东、华南地区的组内差异最大;空间计量模型估计结果显示,数字化对产业结构升级的促进作用显著,技术创新、要素禀赋、所有制结构、出口水平有助于产业结构升级,而人力资本、外资技术溢出对产业结构升级存在抑制效应。

Research on Spatial-temporal Pattern and Mechanism of Digitalization Promoting Industrial Structure Upgrade

Digitalization is an important direction for the upgrading of China''s industrial structure, which plays an important role in promoting the value-added of new industries, the reorganization of factor allocation and the development of new markets. Two kinds of manufacturing upgrading evaluation index from the output structure and employment structure was constructed, and Dagum Gini coefficient was used to analyze the regional differences and spatio-temporal pattern of industrial structure upgrading in China. At the same time, the influencing factors of industrial structure upgrading into internal factors and external factors were divided, and spatial panel data model was used to analyze the mechanism of industrial structure upgrading in China based on two kinds of spatial weights. The results show that the upgrading level of China''s industrial structure has been continuously improved from 2011 to 2020, and the upgrading index of industrial structure has increased from 0.886 to 1.434, with an annual growth rate of 5.42%. The regional difference is decreasing, and the regional difference mainly comes from the inter-group difference, and the intra-group difference is the largest in North China, East China and South China. Spatial econometric model estimates show that digitalization has a significant role in promoting the upgrading of industrial structure. Technological innovation, factor endowment, ownership structure and export level contribute to the upgrading of industrial structure, while human capital and foreign technology spillover have inhibitory effects on the upgrading of industrial structure.