中国经济的真实收敛速度——基于模型方法的改进

经济增长收敛性是新古典增长理论做出的关键性预测，但是国内相关文献测算的收敛速度普遍偏高。文章通过慎重选取控制变量，同时考虑空间相关性和控制变量间可能存在的共线性，在提取主成分的基础上估计空间面板模型，得到的收敛速度仅为2.36%。这一结果既与国外文献的经验值更为接近，也与我国的经济现实更为相符。这启示我们，在研究经济增长的收敛机制时，既要慎重选择有关的控制变量，也要恰当地选择模型估计方法。

The Real Convergence Speed of Chinese Economy: Based on Improved Model Method

The convergence of economic growth is the key prediction of the neoclassical growth theory, but the related estimation of domestic references on convergence speed is generally high. In this paper, by carefully selecting the control variables and considering the spatial correlation and the co-linearity which may exist among the control variables, we estimate the spatial panel model based on the extraction of principal components, the obtained convergence speed is only 2.36%. The result is not only closer to the experience value of foreign literature, but also more suitable for our economic reality. This tells us, on the convergence mechanism of economic growth, we should not only select the control variables carefully, but also select the estimation method of the model properly.