产业内贸易对劳动力市场调整的影响分析——基于中国制造业面板数据的SAH检验

随着中国经济全球化进程的深化,外贸对国内经济的影响日益显著。根据平滑调整假说(SAH),劳动力市场调整成本会随着产业内贸易水平的提高而降低。基于中国制造业22个细分行业面板数据进行检验,本文发现间隔3年的边际内产业指数最为有效,且产业内贸易水平对劳动力市场调整具有滞后效应,但回归分析结果并不支持SAH。随着产业内贸易比例扩大,劳动力的产业间调整增加,而并非产业内的调整。此外,劳动生产率和国内显性需求对劳动力市场调整有很大影响,在产业内贸易水平较高的行业内,劳动生产率的这种影响更加显著,而显性需求和产业内贸易水平影响作用较弱。

Analysis of The Influences of Intra-Industry on the Labor Market Adjustment:A SAH Test Based on the Chinese Manufacturing Panel Data

With accelerating economic globalization in China,foreign trade is forming increasing impact on domestic economy.Based on the smooth adjustment hypothesis(SAH),the labor market adjust cost would drop along with the development of the intra-industry trade.Based on the Chinese 22 manufacturing sub-sectors panel data,the test finds that the MIIT is the most valid at three year intervals.The IIT has a hysteresis effect on the labor market adjustment,but the regression analysis result does not support SAH.With the IIT expansions the workforce moves more among inter-industry rather than intra-industry.Labor productivity and dominant consumption have remarkable effect on the labor market adjustment.The influence of labor productivity is more remarkable in the high MIIT industry than dominant consumption and IIT.