房地产调控力促房地产经营模式转型——基于博弈论的视角

2011年初以来的房地产调控,通过限贷、限购,迫使开发企业主动降价以缓解现金压力,同时通过保障房和体制建设实现房地产长期稳定发展。调控是利益重新分配的反复博弈过程。从博弈论视角看,中央政府、地方政府、开发企业及购房个体具有不同的行为集合与支付函数。本文认为,中央政府的房地产调控存在常态化趋势,而随着博弈的深入,各开发企业之间的博弈将经历不同的阶段,体现为不同的博弈型态,最终是否走快速周转策略、走刚需路线,将成为开发企业生存与发展的关键。

The Impact of Real Estate Regulation on the Adjustment of Developers’ Cooperation Module——from the perspective of Game Theory

The real estate regulation since the early 2011 urged the developers to reduce prices of residential housing through property-purchasing limitations and credit limitations.And the government attempts to realize a sustainable development of real estate by building indemnificatory apartment and establishing mechanism.The Regulation is a repeated game of interest re-distribution.From the perspective of Game Theory,the central government,local government,developers,and individuals have respective action profile and payoff function.The author considers that the regulation might have the tendency of normalization,and then,along with the deepening of the game among developers,it’ll experience different stages,and illustrate different styles.Finally,for the developers,whether to choose the strategy of fast turnaround and to target the rigid demand derived from marriage or housing improvement,would be the essential of survival and development.