中国治理通货膨胀的货币政策操作方式选择

本文从中国特殊的金融体制安排出发,归纳了中国货币政策工具和目标体系。然后分别以"中介目标—最终目标"与"操作目标—中介目标"为基础构建两组向量自回归模型,通过格兰杰因果检验、预测误差方差分解以及脉冲响应分析,量化比较各种政策工具、目标的作用效果,以识别治理通货膨胀的有效货币政策操作方式。研究发现:狭义货币供应量是影响中国通货膨胀最有效的中介目标;而金融机构信贷计划又是影响狭义货币供应量的最有效操作目标。论文论述了信贷规模控制制度下的货币创造与货币供给机制,对实证结论进行了解释。相关政策建议包括:对于较为严重的通货膨胀,应该迅速从信贷规模控制入手,切断货币投放的主渠道;对于公众能够承受的温和通货膨胀,主要还应运用存款准备金率等市场化工具;实行利率市场化并优化贷款结构则是长期努力方向。最后论文简要评价了危机后中国的货币政策操作。

The Choice of Monetary Policy Implemental Procedure to Curb Inflation in China

The paper first summarizes the monetary policy instruments and targets system in accordance with China’s special financial regime.Then we construct two VAR models respectively based on the intermediate-final target system and the operational-intermediate target system.Granger causality test,forecast error variance decomposition and impulse response analysis based on the VAR models are used in order to compare the Effects of various monetary policy instruments,operational and intermediate targets,and to identify the effective operating procedure to curb inflation.It is concluded that: M1 is the best intermediate target to curb inflation;credit scale is the most effective operational target in affecting M1,to which economic explanations based on the credit-scale-control system are provided.Policy suggestions include: In face of severe inflation,credit-scale policy should be implemented to cut the main channel of money issuing;As for bearable moderate inflation,market-orient instruments are proposed;And in the long run,we should hold on the direction of interest-rate liberalization to improve credit structure.A short comment is made on China’s monetary policy implementation after the Crisis.