基于流动性视角的区域金融领先指数研究

流动性与区域经济增长不匹配是区域金融风险的重要来源。通过VAR模型脉冲分析,以浙江省为例,构建区域性领先指标体系,并运用因子分析法构建区域性金融领先指数。从比较结果看,引入宏观调控和国际因素变量后金融领先指数的走势基本一致,但对区域金融运行状况预测的效果有较大程度的改善,具体表现为对区域金融运行状态的预测周期有所提前。尤其是在国际国内经济形势波动较大、宏观调控力度加强的情况下,加入宏观调控和国际因素的领先指数的优势更加显著。

Study on Regional Financial Leading Indicators from Liquidity Perspective

The less matching of liquidity and regional economic growth is an important source of regional financial risk.Using VAR Pulse Analysis Model,this paper builds a regional financial leading indicator system of Zhejiang Province,and using Factor analysis,focusing on the importance of macro-control and its expected effect to regional economic performance of the external shocks,the paper builds a regional system of regional financial leading indicators system of Zhejiang Province.The result shows that,before and after the introduction of macro control variables,the leading index move congruously,but the later have improved better.