中国用工荒演变轨迹研究

文章对1979—2010年中国四大地区的劳动力就业数据,采用生物系统论研究方法,将地区劳动力视为复杂系统,对中国四大地区内外劳动力格局演变进行估计,从而深入讨论用工荒根源及演变轨迹。结果发现:劳动力就业自然增长率与人口自然增长率间有内在规律——23定律,这一定律是中国用工荒到来的根源,它决定中国东部、东北、中部、西部将先后于2014、2020、2025、2027年进入用工荒;东部用工荒是紧随劳动力自然就业繁荣期之后,而东北、中部和西部则是劳动力自然繁荣期后经历较长的潜伏期才进入用工荒。

Research on Labor Shortage Evolution in China

Based on China’s four regions employment data from 1979 to 2010,using the biological systems research methods,regarding the local labor force as a complex system,this paper estimates the data of the evolution of employment patterns with in and outside the four regions,and then discusses the problem of workforce shortage in depth.The results show that between the natural population growth rate and the natural labor employment growth rate,there has a inherent law(23 law) which is the root for the arrival of China workforce shortage,it decides that the eastern,northeast,middle and west in China will enter the workforce shortage era successively in 2014,2020,2025 and 2027.At the end of the nature prosperous time in the labor force market,the eastern quickly enters into the workforce shortage era,but the other regions in China will experience a long incubation period before the arrival of workforce shortage.