本轮宏观经济波动的理性思考

本轮宏观经济波动同已往的不同,主要是因为国际收支失衡而引起的,所以需要有新的办法,关键是要深化改革。紧缩中出现的问题,是与企业自身的资本金过低而债务资金过高有密切关系的,不能将问题仅仅归于从紧的货币政策。股市在紧缩中的下滑,不简单是政策问题,而是上市公司长期不分红的结果,不分红必然使投资者把股价涨落作为重点,从而使中国股市成为投机性很强的市场,而不是以投资为基点的市场,因而不能简单救市,而是要深化改革。

Reflections on this Round of Macroeconomic Fluctuation

Different from the several rounds of macro-economic fluctuations in the past, this round of macro-economic fluctuation is mainly because of the imbalance of the international balance of payments. To find new approaches to this problem, the key is to deepen the reform. The problems exposed in this round of tight monetary policy are closely related to the low own- capital and excessive debt financing, but not be simply attributed to tight monetary policy. Similarly, the crash down of the stock market is not simple policy issues. It may be because of the low or none dividends payment of the listed companies. Without dividends payment, the investors will focus on the price fluctuations in excess, so that China's stock market to become highly speculative market, rather than the value-based market. As the result, we can not simply adopt policies to save the market. The more effective method is to deepen the reform.