混沌理论在我国货币政策制定和执行中的应用

我国货币政策环境可视作混沌的复杂系统。混沌理论表明,系统在时空上的复杂结构通常隐含着简单的决定性准则,一旦这样的准则被发现,管理当局则可以观察或者控制系统内部的复杂状况,以达到预期目标。运用于货币政策的混沌理论,是指将货币政策环境看作是具有高度复杂性和长期行为不可预测性的混沌系统,其中必然隐含着复杂系统内普遍适用的简单决定性准则。如果我们掌握并始终遵循这一准则,就可以观察并控制货币政策环境这一复杂混沌系统,使货币政策目标向预期的方向发展。

Application of Chaotic Theory to formulation and execution of monetary policy in China

This paper proposes a new view on monetary policy environments. In the opening economic market, there are many factors that influence the effectiveness of money policy. These factors will cause the direction of monetary policy uncertainty. So the authors regard the condition of the monetary policy as chaotic system. Then the paper introduces the economic characteristics of chaotic, which are non-line outcome, the sensitivity with the system's initial condition, and the self-organization complicated system. All these characteristics can be applied to analysis monetary policy. The environments of monetary policy is always changing, China become the member of WTO, the economy globalization following their steps, China government aims to reform its monetary policy framework in the long run, has intensified its open market operations. For these reasons, the condition of the monetary policy becomes more and more uncertain and potentially unstable. In chaotic theory, there are some simple rules in these complicated systems. The target of the money policy may follow the expect direction if the central bank can find and comply with these rules.