基于ADS-B意图信息的航迹预测改进算法

在飞行冲突探测和恶劣天气情况下，单纯利用跟踪滤波算法无法准确判断目标飞机未来的飞行动态。为了有效提高航迹预测精度，针对广播式自动相关监视（ADS-B）信息中意图信息对航迹的影响，提出了一种基于ADS-B意图信息的航迹预测改进算法。该改进算法先通过残差均值交互式多模型（RMIMM）算法，推算出目标飞机的飞行状态参数和飞机运动模式，再结合天气状况、飞行计划和空中交通管制规章进行意图估计，最后通过飞行状态参数、飞机运动模式以及意图信息共同预测目标飞机的航迹。运用蒙特卡洛方法进行仿真，结果表明，与现有算法相比，该改进算法不仅能提供更加精确的航迹预测，而且降低了意图推断的时间延迟。

An improved trajectory prediction algorithm based on ADS-B intent information

For the flight conflict detection and vile weather, the future flight dynamic of the target aircraft can not be accurately judged if tracking filtering algorithm is only used. In order to enhance effectively the trajectory prediction accuracy, an improved trajectory prediction algorithm is proposed based on Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) intent information which has the effect on aircraft trajectory. For this improved algorithm, the flight state parameters and aircraft movement modes for the target aircraft are first estimated by Residual-Mean Interacting Multiple Model (RMIMM) algorithm, and then the target aircraft intent is estimated by the combination of the weather, flight plan, air traffic control regulations, as well as the flight state parameters and aircraft movement modes derived from RMIMM algorithm, and finally the target aircraft trajectory is predicted by the joint use of flight state parameters, aircraft movement modes and intent information. The Monte Carlo simulation is carried out, and the results show that not only can the more accurate trajectory prediction be achieved, but also intent inference time delay is reduced for this improved algorithm, compared with the existing algorithms.