经济增长、产业结构与农村减贫——基于省际面板数据的实证分析

在经济增长与减贫关系问题上,大量的实证研究仅仅用经济增长以及伴随增长过程的收入分配状态作为解释变量,其结论与现实的契合性不够稳定。通过在计量模型中加入产业结构、农业生产条件、农业扶贫与发展政策等关键性的中间变量,并采用跨越八七扶贫攻坚期间和新世纪农村扶贫开发两个发展时期的省际面板数据,实证分析表明经济增长在农村减贫中具有重要地位,城乡收入差距扩大对农村减贫具有显著的负效应。与现有的大量实证研究结论不同,本研究表明不同产业在经济发展的不同阶段对农村减贫的影响是不同的,三次产业发展对农村贫困的影响发生了一定程度的逆转。因此,新时期反贫困战略也应做出相应的调整。

Economic Growth,Industry Structure and Rural Poverty Reduction: Based on An Empirical Analysis of Provincial Panel Data

On the relationship between economic growth and poverty reduction,large amount of empirical studies only made use of the economic growth and the income distribution conditions accompanying the growth process as the explanatory variable,their conclusions usually could not be consistent with the reality.By adding some intermediate variables into the econometric model,such as industrial structure,agricultural production conditions,poverty alleviation and agricultural development policies etc.,and making use of the provincial panel data of the two periods of 1994-2000 and 2001-2008,this paper makes an empirical analysis.The Results indicate that the economic growth plays an important role in the rural poverty reduction and that the urban-rural income gap has significant negative effects on rural poverty reduction.Contrary to the large amount of existing conclusions of empirical analysis,this study shows that different industry has different impact on rural poverty reduction during different stage of economic development;the effects of all the three industrial developments on rural poverty have been reversed to some extent.Therefore,the anti-poverty strategy of the new era should be revised accordingly.