中国农业集聚重心与农民收入重心变动研究——基于粮食类农作物空间布局变化的实证检验

[目的]考察中国农业集聚的空间分布和变化特征,分析农业集聚重心与农民收入重心两者的相互关系。[方法]文章利用了1985~2015年相关农业产量统计数据,运用了重心分析方法。[结果]1985年以来我国农业空间分布整体呈现南下西进特征,但不同农作物的表现有所不同。谷物1985~2015年整体呈现向东偏北特征,豆类整体呈现向西偏南特征。谷物等主要集中在东北地区,豆类等主要集中在西南地区。而从农民收入重心看,农民收入在空间分布上呈现北上东进特征,2009年后,呈现南上西进特征。农业集聚重心与农民收入重心存在长期协整关系,农业集聚对农民收入产生正向影响。[结论]农业集聚程度与农民收入密切相关,通过农业集约化、专业化生产提高农业集聚程度,可以促进农业发展进而影响农民收入。

STUDY ON THE CHANGE OF CENTER OF AGRICULTURAL AGGLOMERATION AND PEASANTS' INCOME IN CHINA: EMPIRICAL TEST BASED ON SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF GRAIN CROPS

This paper investigated the spatial distribution and changing characteristics of agricultural agglomeration in China, and analyzed the relationship between the focus of agricultural agglomeration and the center of income of peasants using the method of gravity analysis, based on the statistical data of agricultural output from 1985 to 2015. The results showed that the spatial distribution of agriculture in China changed from south to west since 1985, but the performance of different crops was different. Grain growth planted from east to north from 1985 to 2015, the beans showed southwestward. Cereal and other mainly concentrated in the northeast region, beans and other mainly concentrated in the southwestern region. However, from the perspective of the income of peasants, the peasants'' income showed a north-east advance in the spatial distribution. After 2009, peasants'' income showed the characteristics to southward and westward. There was a long-term cointegration relationship between the center of gravity of agricultural agglomeration and the center of gravity of peasants'' income, and agricultural agglomeration had a positive impact on peasants'' income. The degree of agricultural agglomeration was closely related to the income of peasants. Through intensification of agriculture and specialized production, the degree of agricultural agglomeration was increased, which promoted the development of agriculture and further affected the income of peasants.