中国在东亚经济一体化中的角色演化与策略选择:基于经济周期同步性的实证研究

本文利用经济周期同步性对于区域经济一体化的理论涵义,选取5种代表性度量方法,分析了1990Q1～2011Q3期间包含中国在内9个东亚经济体和多种经济体组合的经济周期同步性及其阶段性变化,并将实证结果同东亚经济一体化进程的评价与展望、中国在区域经济中的角色演化及未来参与区域合作的策略选择等分析相融合。结果表明,东亚的总体经济周期同步性程度还不高,增长也不明显,但中日韩组合的总体同步性明显强于其它经济体组合,且显著增强;同时,中国与其他东亚经济体的同步性近年来有显著提高,充分体现出自身经济与区域经济的加速融合以及在未来区域一体化进程中赶超日本地位的趋势。尽管美国与其他东亚经济体的同步性情况与中国相似,却存在本质上的差别。

The Role Evolution and Strategie Selection of China in the Course of East Asian Economic Integration: An Empirical Analysis based on Business Cycle Synchronization

Based on the implications of business cycle synchronization,the paper selects five typical methodologies to measure the synchronization of business cycles of 9 East Asian economies and various economy combinations from 1990Q1 to 2011Q3.Combining the empirical results and the analysis of regional integration prospects and the China's choices in future cooperation,it found that the aggregate synchronization in East Asia is not high and it has not increased significantly.But the aggregate synchronization of the China-Japan-Korea group is the highest one among all groups and has increased significantly.In addition,the synchronization of business cycle between China and the other East Asian economies is improved significantly in recent years,which shows that the connection between China's economy and regional economy has been becoming closer and closer,and it displays the tendency that China would replace the position that Japan has been playing in the process of the integration.Although the synchronization between US and the other economies is similar as China,the reasons are essentially different.