Long-run dynamics of exchange rates: A multi-frequency investigation |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Economics Department, The University of Western Australia, and Faculty of Finance, Banking and Business Management, Quy Nhon University, Viet Nam;2. Business and Economics Research Group, Ho Chi Minh City Open University, Viet Nam;1. School of Finance, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, Chengdu, Sichuan, PR China;2. School of Economics and Management, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu, Sichuan, PR China;1. Department of Finance, Fujian Business University, 19, Huang Pu, Gulou District, Fuzhou, Fujian, People''s Republic of China;2. Department of Finance, College of Economics, Jinan University, No. 601 Huangpu Avenue West, Guanzhou, Guandong 510632, People’s Republic of China;1. School of Securities and Futures, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, China;2. Department of Finance, National Central University, No. 300, Jhongda Rd., Jhongli City, Taoyuan County 32001, Taiwan, ROC;3. School of Securities and Futures, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, No. 55, Guanghuacun Street, Chengdu, Sichuan 610074, China;1. Department of Finance, California State University, Fullerton, United States;2. Institute of Finance, National Chiao Tung University, Taiwan;3. China University of Technology and National Chiao Tung University, Taiwan;1. Nanchang Institute of Technology, China;2. School of Finance, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, China;3. SHU-UTS SILC Business School, Shanghai University, China |
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| Abstract: | The empirical observation that purchasing power parity (PPP) holds in the long run but not in the short run has enjoyed a near-consensus status in international finance literature. However, a similar degree of agreement has not been reached with respect to the exact horizon of this “long run” aspect. To shed light on this matter, a novel approach is adopted in this paper to combine conventional time series methodology with insights from multi-frequency analyses. In particular, we simultaneously explore price-exchange-rate dynamics not only through time, but also at various horizons via a wavelet decomposition. Unit root tests applied to wavelet-based decomposed real exchange rates indicates that PPP holds at horizons consistent with the literature. With respect to the predictive value of our approach, we show that our decomposed measures provide guidance to future movements of real change rates. Additionally, we find that nominal exchange-rate dynamics are dominated by activities corresponding to low frequencies. Results from this study thus enable researchers and practitioners to establish an exchange-rate modelling framework with increased efficiency. |
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| Keywords: | Purchasing power parity Wavelets Multi-frequency analysis F31 F39 C58 |
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