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Japan’s impactful augmentation of quantitative easing sovereign-bond purchases
Institution:1. School of Economics and Management, Key Laboratory of Financial Science and Technology Innovation, Fuzhou University, 2 Xue Yuan Road, University Town, Fuzhou, Fujian, PR China;2. School of Economics and Management, Fuzhou University, 2 Xue Yuan Road, University Town, Fuzhou, Fujian, PR China;1. Research Center of the Central China for Economic and Social Development, Nanchang University, China;2. School of Economics and Management, Nanchang University, China;3. Department of Accounting Information, National Taichung University of Science & Technology, Sanmin Rd., Sec. 3, Taichung 40401, Taiwan;1. Research Department, Hong Kong Monetary Authority, 55/F, Two International Finance Centre, 8 Finance Street, Central, Hong Kong, China;2. Institute of Theoretical Physics and Department of Physics, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, New Territories, Hong Kong, China;1. Department of Public Finance, National Chengchi University, No. 64, Sec. 2, Zhi-nan Rd, Wenshan, 11605 Taipei, Taiwan;2. Department of Business Administration, Chung Yuan Christian University, No. 200, Chung-pei Rd, Chung-li, 32023 Taoyuan, Taiwan;3. Department of Accountancy, City University of Hong Kong, 88 Tat Chee Avenue, Kowloon Tong, Hong Kong;1. School of Securities and Futures, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, China;2. Department of Finance, National Central University, No. 300, Jhongda Rd., Jhongli City, Taoyuan County 32001, Taiwan, ROC;3. School of Securities and Futures, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, No. 55, Guanghuacun Street, Chengdu, Sichuan 610074, China;1. Department of Finance, School of Economics and Finance, Universidad EAFIT, Carrera 49 No. 7 Sur-50, Medellin, Colombia;2. School of Management, Universidad de los Andes, Calle 21, No. 1-20, Bogota, Colombia;3. Department of Economics and IME, University of Salamanca, Campus Miguel de Unamuno, 37007 Salamanca, Spain
Abstract:This article examines how and to what extent large-scale government bond purchases in the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy affected two components of long-term interest rates over the period 2009–2015. The article divides market yields on popular 5 and 10-year government bonds into future policy-rate expectations with uncertainty and a specific type of term premia required by investors for the bonds’ demand/supply imbalances, by using overnight index swap rates as a proxy for the former. The Bank of Japan augmented the purchases substantially by starting Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing (QQME) in 2013. The QQME became impactful in the sense that it encouraged investors to improve the first component whilst reducing the second component. These appeared mainly as persisting announcement-effects – upward level shifts of the expectations and downward ones of the term premia. The reduction of term premia was much greater for the 10-year maturity than for 5-year one and strengthened after an additional expansion of the QQME in 2014. The QQME is estimated to have enhanced 5-year sovereign bond yields by 11.9 basis points (bps) a month on average whilst reducing 10-year ones by 8.3 bps. The impact on the 5-year yields turned to be negative after the QQME expansion.
Keywords:Bank of Japan  Quantitative easing  Term premia  Interest-rate expectations  Overnight index swap rates
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