Disagreements with noisy signals and asset pricing |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Research Center of the Central China for Economic and Social Development, Nanchang University, 330031 Nanchang, PR China;2. School of Economics and Management, Nanchang University, 330031 Nanchang, PR China;3. Business School, Hunan University, 410082 Changsha, PR China;1. Department of Management Sciences, COMSATS University Islamabad, Attock Campus, Pakistan;2. Rennes School of Business, Rennes City, Brittany, France;3. Schulich School of Business, York University, Toronto, Canada;4. Department of Economics, Pusan National University, Busan, Republic of Korea;1. Department of Tourism and Hospitality, TransWorld University, No. 1221, Zhennan Rd., Douliu City, Yunlin County 640, Taiwan;2. Department of Economics, Soochow University, No. 56, Kueiyang Street, Section 1, Taipei 100, Taiwan;1. Patrick E. Molony Professor, Department of Economics, Auburn University, 138 Miller Hall, Auburn, AL 36849, United States;2. Department of Economics, University of California Santa Cruz, 1156 High Street, Santa Cruz, CA 95064, United States;1. Graduate School of Management, National Taiwan University of Science and Technology, Taiwan;2. Department of Risk Management and Insurance, National Chengchi University, Taiwan;3. School of Business, Central South University, China;4. Department of Financial Engineering and Actuarial Mathematics, Soochow University, Taiwan |
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| Abstract: | We consider a Lucas-type exchange economy with two trees and two investors to analyze the effects of heterogeneous beliefs and signal quality on stock market equilibrium. Our model has the following implications. There are spillover effects, in that the investors’ heterogeneous beliefs and signal quality related to one stock not only affect its own price and pricing moments, but also affect those of the other. Contrary to the conventional wisdom, we show that the volatility of one stock decreases with both its own and the other stock’s disagreements. Additionally, we reveal a negative correlation between the stocks, which decreases as the investors’ dispersions raise but increases as the discrepancy in signal quality reduces. We also show that heterogeneous beliefs and signal quality impact stock market beta mainly through scale and volatility effects, respectively. Furthermore, our findings suggest that both heterogeneous beliefs and signal quality have significant influences on the investors’ optimal portfolio plans. |
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| Keywords: | Heterogeneous belief Signal quality Kalman filter Asset pricing Optimal portfolio plan D51 D53 D91 G11 G12 |
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