嘉兴市信贷结构对经济增长的动态效应分析

以嘉兴市1985—2009年的年度数据为样本，基于VAR模型，运用Johansen协整检验、Granger因果检验、误差修正模型、脉冲响应函数和方差分解等计量方法，论证分析了嘉兴市信贷结构对经济增长的动态效应。结果表明：嘉兴市信贷结构发展不平衡，短期贷款对经济增长的影响效应最显著，而中长期贷款、信托类等其他贷款对经济增长的促进作用却不是很明显。因此，今后金融主管部门在配合国家产业政策实施信贷政策时应该坚持向高效率、高效益和重点领域转移，转变单纯追求信贷增长的做法，强化信贷资产质量管理，从而提高信贷资金的使用效率，最大程度地发挥中长期信贷资金对经济增长的支持力度，促进经济增长方式的转变。

Analysis of the Dynamic Effects of Jiaxing City's Credit Structure on Economic Growth

Drawing on annul data sample from year 1985 to 2009 of Jiaxing city,the thesis analyses Jiaxing city credit structure's dynamic effects on economic growth by employing Johansen cointegration test,Granger causality test,error correction model,impulse response function as well as variance decomposition analysis,which are based on VAR method.The results suggest that Jiaxing's credit structure development is imbalanced;long-term loan together with other credit's accelerating impact on economic growth seem not d...