自由贸易区战略助推人民币区域化——基于CAFTA的实证研究

2008年全球金融危机的爆发使得以中国为代表的新兴经济体开始寻求本币国际化的进程。自由贸易区战略和人民币区域化之间有何关联?本文根据人民币的事实境外流通状况和发展趋势,选定CAFTA作为人民币区域化的辐射范围,分析人民币区域化的贸易总量和结构条件后认为:(一)人民币区域化的贸易总量条件已经具备,在贸易结构条件上则喜忧参半;(二)人民币区域化必须具备相应的贸易结算基础,否则人民币区域化将无法得到实体经济的有力支持;(三)自由贸易区内区域性贸易逆差在推动人民币区域化进程中有一定作用。最后提出运用自贸区战略的巧实力助推人民币区域化的政策建议。

The Strategic Speedingp-up of RMB Regionalization in Free Trade Area:An Empirical Study based on CAFTA

The eruption of global financial crisis in 2008 propelled the emerging economies represented by China to try to internationalize their home currencies.What relationship it would be between the strategy of free trade area and the RMB regionalization This paper chooses the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area(CAFTA) as research subject to analyze to what degree the CAFTA’S trade scale and trade structure would support the RMB’ s regionalization,based on the fact of RMB’s circulation beyond the borders and the tendency of its development.Three main conclusions have been reached:(i) the international trade scale of China positively supports the RMB’s regionalization,but it’s a mixed blessing for the international trade structure;(ii) the trade payment and clearing facility function of RMB in international transaction constitute the foundation of its realization to be regionally used,or RMB’ s regionalization would lack the absolutely necessary real economy basis;(iii) China’ s trade deficit to ASEAN do promote the RMB’ s regionalization to some degree.Finally,we emphasize the importance to make polices to make better use of the FTA strategy to speed up the process to regionalize the RMB.