我国区域经济活跃度的数学模型及其应用

首先给出经济活跃度的概念、内涵及特征，统计分析山东、河南、浙江和福建四省1990—2013年能够反映经济活跃度的科技成果数量、居民消费水平等八个经济指标，利用时序全局主成分分析方法建立经济活跃度的数学模型，动态描绘其历史演变进程和发展趋势。结果表明：四省的经济活跃度时序图均呈增长趋势，但增长速度各异且其差距也逐年增加；2000年之前四省经济活跃度增长趋势缓慢，2000年之后均为快速增长，其发展动态轨迹与经济客观状况相吻合。

The Mathematical Model of Regional Economic Activity in Our Country and Its Application

The article first gives the concept, connotation and characteristics of the degree of economic activity, and statistically analyzes eight economic indicators, such as the number of scientific and technological achievements and the consumption level of residents etc, reflecting the degree of economic activity in 1990 in Shandong Province, Henan Province, Zhejiang Province and Fujian Province.By using of sequential global principal component analysis to establish a mathematical model of economic activity, dynamic depiction of its historical evolution and development trend. The results show that the time series of economic activity in all four provinces show an increasing trend, but the growth rates are different and the gap is also increasing year by year, the growth rate of economic activity in the four provinces before 2000 was slow, and both showed rapid growth after 2000 with its development Dynamic trajectory and economic objective conditions match.