A useful tool for forecasting the Euro-area business cycle phases |
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| Authors: | Pilar Bengoechea Maximo Camacho Gabriel Perez-Quiros |
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| Institution: | aEuropean Commission, Spain;bUniversidad de Murcia, Facultad de Economia y Empresa, Departamento de Metodos Cuantitativos para la Economia, 30100, Murcia, Spain;cPrime Minister's Economic Bureau, Spain |
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| Abstract: | Based on a novel extension of existing multivariate Markov-switching models, we provide the reader with a useful tool for analyzing current business conditions and making predictions about the future state of the Euro-area economy in real time. Apart from the Industrial Production Index, we find that the European Commission Industrial Confidence Indicator, which is issued with no delay, is very useful for constructing the real-time predictions. |
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| Keywords: | Business cycles Confidence indicators Markov switching Turning points |
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