中国税收超GDP增长之谜的实证解释

本文实证分析中国税收连年超GDP增长的原因，其结论是：分税制改革以来各地区税收征管效率年均提高值9．6％，征管效率提高较大的省份集中在东部经济相对发达地区；总税收对GDP的增长弹性约为1．1，工商业增加值、企业利润和劳动者报酬等的增长不同程度地促进相关税收增长；总税收对税收征管效率提高的弹性约为0．43，税收征管效率提高每年促进税收增长约4．1％，税收征管效率对税收增长的作用主要体现在所得税和增值税上。

Positively Explaining the Riddle of Tax-exceeding-GDP Growth

This article studies the reasons of tax-exceeding-GDP growth by positive analysis.Since the tax-sharing reform,tax collection efficiency of various provinces in China has been improved at an average annual rate of 9.6% with the robust growth mainly taking place in the eastern provinces.The growth elasticity of total tax revenue to GDP is 1.1,and growths in value-added of industrial and commercial enterprises,profits of enterprises and returns to employee have boosted,in different degrees,increases in relevant taxes.The growth elasticity of total tax revenue to tax collection efficiency roughly totals 0.43,and growth in the latter has increased tax growth rate by 4.1%,annually.Besides,implications of tax collection efficiency on tax growth center on value-added tax and income tax.