| 宏观经济环境对并购活动的影响——基于时间序列数据的经验研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 李井林.宏观经济环境对并购活动的影响——基于时间序列数据的经验研究[J].经济与管理,2014(6):87-94. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李井林 |
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| 作者单位： | 湖北经济学院 会计学院，湖北 武汉 430205; 湖北经济学院 湖北会计发展研究中心，湖北 武汉 430205 |
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| 摘 要： | 基于宏观经济动因，研究经济发展水平、利率与股票价格指数对我国总体性并购活动的影响，实证检验结果表明：除利率之外，经济发展水平及股票价格均与总体性并购活动存在长期的均衡关系，并且为总体性并购活动的Granger原因；在短期内，经济发展水平波动与股票价格波动对并购活动波动均存在正向影响，而利率波动对并购活动波动存在负向影响。这说明经济发展水平与股票价格是我国并购浪潮的重要驱动因素。
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| 关 键 词： | 并购 宏观经济环境 VAR模型 |
The Impact of the Macroeconomic Environment on M & A Activity---Empirical Research Based on Time-series Data |
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| Li Jinglin.The Impact of the Macroeconomic Environment on M & A Activity---Empirical Research Based on Time-series Data[J].Economy and Management,2014(6):87-94. |
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| Authors: | Li Jinglin |
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| Institution: | Li Jinglin (1. School of Accounting, Hubei University of Economics,Wuhan 430205, China; 2. Hubei Accounting Development Research Center, Hubei University of Economics, Wuhan 430205, China) |
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| Abstract: | This article investigates the impact of the economic development level, interest rate and stock price index on aggregate M＆A activity based on the the macro economic motivation.Empirical results show that there are the long-run equilibrium relationship and Granger causality among the economic development level, interest rate and M＆A activity excluding interest rate; In the short run, the volatility of economic development level and stock price has positive relation with the volatility of M＆A activity,but the volatility of interest rate has negative relation with the volatility of M＆A activity. This shows that the development level of economy and stock prices are important factors driving the wave of mergers and acquisitions in China. |
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| Keywords: | Mergers & Acquisitions Macroeconomic environment VAR model |
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