基于供需不平衡下海南旅游人数与酒店数量分析

本文从海南省国际旅游岛的建设背景出发,揭示了海南省酒店供求管理中存在的不平衡问题,深刻剖析了供求不平衡的原因和弊端,并进行了实证分析。在人数预测上,选用累积和逐期增长量两个指标,从增长的绝对量和增长程度两个角度有效把握目前的人数变化趋势,运用Eviews,进行一元回归模型分析。在酒店数量方面,根据预测人数和酒店行业入住率标准,确定最佳酒店数量。最后结合海南省实际情况,提出酒店供求管理在今后发展过程中的对策和建议。

Analysis of Tourism People and Hotel Quantity Based on Imbalance of Supply and Demand

This paper reveals the imbalance of the demand and supply management existing in Hainan hotel from the background of international tourism island construction,then deeply analyzes the reasons and disadvantages of unbalanced development.By using empirical analysis,this paper forecasts the number of people considering of absolute growth and batch by batch growth,uses Eviews to do a regression model analysis.It determines the number of hotel by actual number of people and the hotel occupancy rate.Finally,according to the actual situation of Hainan province,it puts forward some suggestions towards hotel demand and supply management.