我国经济增长与能源消费的内在关系研究——基于VECM模型格兰杰因果检验与灰色关联度分析

将能源消费总量纳入到柯布道格拉斯生产函数中，运用中国1990～2011年的时间序列数据，通过Granger因果检验，研究我国能源消费与经济增长之间的Granger因果关系。研究发现：不论在短期还是长期中，GDP与固定资本存量，GDP与能源消费总量都互为双向格兰杰因果关系；而固定资本存量与能源消费则不同，在短期时，不存在格兰杰因果关系，但在长期均衡中，它们之间也存在双向格兰杰因果关系。为进一步明确在能源消费中，哪个产业的能源消费对我国经济增长的贡献率最大，构建了灰色关联度模型，研究发现第三产业对我国经济增长的贡献率最大。最后根据研究结论，提出优化产业结构、大力发展低能耗、高产出的第三产业．充分发挥资源配置效率．建立资源节约型的经济发展模式的建议．

Research on the Inner Relationship between Chinese Economic Growth and Energy Consumption --.Based on Granger Causality Test of the VECM Model and Grey Relevance Analysis

This paper estimates the relationship between Chinese total energy consumption and economic growth through Granger causality test on Cobb-Douglas production function with the variable total energy consumption by using 1990-2011 time-series data. The research shows that no matter in short-term or long-term, GDP and fixed capital present two-side Granger causality, as well as GDP and energy consumption. Also, to explore which industry contributes the most in energy consumption, we model the grey relational grade model, and find that the tertiary industry contributes the most. In the end of this paper, we make a suggestion that optimize industry structure, develop low energy-consumption and high yields tertiary industry and improve the efficiency of resource allocation to build a resource-conserving economic development model.