入世前后我国棉花国际贸易影响因素的比较分析

本文运用格兰杰因果关系检验法对入世前后影响我国棉花国际贸易行为的诸因素进行了甄别和计量分析,研究表明在入世前我国棉花垄断经营时期,棉花的进出口只关注供给层面而忽视需求层面,并随着生产量和库存量的变化而波动,而入世以后我国棉花国际贸易波动则主要是受市场价格及需求因素的影响。

A Comparative Study on the Influencing Factors to China's Cotton Import & Export before and after Entering into WTO

This paper discriminates and measures the factors influencing China's cotton international trading before and after entering into WTO, using Granger Causality Test. It indicates that China's cotton international trading paid no attention to the demand but supply during the cotton foreign trade monopoly period, so, China's cotton import and export had been fluctuated with the variation of cotton production and the stock. But since entering into WTO, the main factors influencing China's cotton Im. & Ex. are the market price and demand.