Diffusion der Biogastechnologie in der Schweiz: eine GIS-basierte Multiagenten-Simulation

In this article we introduce a GIS-based multi-agent simulation model. It is used to study the spatial diffusion dynamics of agricultural biogas plants in Switzerland, which lags markedly behind those in the neighboring countries Austria and Germany. The investigation concentrates in particular on the impacts of economic factors and of locally available resources on the diffusion process. The model considers three different types of plants (100 kW_el, 200 kW_el, 1 MW_el). The results show that feed-in tariffs, cosubstrate prices and the revenues from heat sales are critical parameters. They indicate further that the present promotion policy fosters smaller plants, whereas larger plants are preferred only in few areas with high substrate densities. Finally, we find evidence that increased heat sales can significantly raise diffusion dynamics, and that the higher feed-in tariffs planned in Switzerland could actually overcompensate deteriorating cosubstrate prices.