黑龙江省专利产出预测及影响因素分析

根据黑龙江省2000—2010年专利发展实际数据,以最小二乘法和Cobb-Douglas理论为基础函数建立模型,预测出黑龙江省专利产出的未来发展趋势并对主要影响因素进行了实证分析。研究结果表明,未来几年内黑龙江省专利产出将呈现逐年增加的发展趋势,R&D经费支出的增长率大于专利产出的增长率;研发投入对专利产出量影响不显著,但是科学家和工程师数量及刺激研发人员的各项积极政策与专利产量显著相关。

The Forecast of Patent Output and the Analysis of Influencing Factors in Heilongjiang Province

According to the real data of Heilongjiang Province patent development from 2000 to 2008,established model of based on the least squares method and Cobb-Douglas function,and made the future development trend of patent output forecast of Heilongjiang Province,and analyzed correlated factors affected patent output.The results shown that the future of the patent output for Heilongjiang Province would be increasing within the next few years,and the growth rate of R&D expenditures would be greater than the output of the patent;R&D input has no significant effect on output of the patent,however the number of person,including scientists and engineers,and a variety of active policy with simulating them significantly associated with the output of patent.