中印石油消费的动态影响因素比较分析

利用中国与印度1970-2009年的实证数据,运用VAR模型,Johansen协整检验和向量误差修正模型等方法,首次对两国的石油价格、经济增长、人口等因素与石油消费的长期关系及短期动态影响进行了比较分析。结果显示:长期中,石油价格与石油消费的弹性关系,印度表现为负,而在中国为正;经济增长对石油消费的影响,中国大于印度;人口对石油消费的影响,印度大于中国。短期中,印度的经济增长和人口对石油消费的影响更显著,石油价格对两国石油消费的影响程度相似。

Oil Consumption in China and lndia.A Comparative Analysis of Dynamic Factors

This paper establishes a Johansen Cointegration and Vector Error Correction Model to analyze the long-run equilibrium relationship and the short-run dynamic process among oil price,civil economic growth,population and oil consumption for the first time,by using China’s and India’s data of 1970—2009.The empirical results indicate that: in the long-run,the elasticity of oil price in India is negative,while in China is positive;the impact of economic growth on oil consumption is more obvious in China than in India;the impact of population on oil consumption is more obvious in India than in China.In the short-run,the impact of India’s economic growth and population on oil consumption is more significant.The impact of oil price on oil consumption of the two countries is similar.