| 我国上市公司财务危机预警系统研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 胡杨,冯武. 我国上市公司财务危机预警系统研究[J]. 铁道运输与经济, 2006, 28(2): 12-15 |
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| 作者姓名： | 胡杨 冯武 |
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| 作者单位： | 西南交通大学,经济管理学院,四川,成都,610031 |
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| 摘 要： | 通过将Logistic回归分析法和因子分析法进行有效地组合,对我国上市公司的财务危机状况进行了研究。利用SPSS软件并以24个财务比率指标和5个因子变量为基础,建立了上市公司危机预警模型,并检验了其预测的准确率,结果表明判断准确率达到89.5%。同时对财务危机预警模型的两类错误成本进行了分析。
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| 关 键 词： | 上市公司 财务 预警系统 回归模型 指标 |
| 文章编号： | 1003-1421(2006)02-0012-04 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-08-23 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005-10-08 |
Research on the Precaution System of Financial Crisis in China Listed Companies |
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| HU Yang,FENG Wu. Research on the Precaution System of Financial Crisis in China Listed Companies[J]. Rail Way Transport and Economy, 2006, 28(2): 12-15 |
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| Authors: | HU Yang FENG Wu |
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| Affiliation: | School of Economics Management, South-West Jiaotong University, Chengdu, Sichuan 610031, China |
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| Abstract: | By combining effectively Logistic regression analysis method and factor analysis method, this paper studies the status of financial crisis in China listed companies. Using SPSS software, based on 24 financial ratio indices and 5 factor variables, the paper creates the crisis-precaution model for listed companies and verifies its accuracy as precaution. The test result shows that the accuracy can reach 89.5%. In the meanwhile, the paper also analyzes two types of wrong costs in the financial crisis precaution model. |
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| Keywords: | listed company financial precaution system regression model index |
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