论出口、消费与产出增长

本文采用时间序列和面板数据,对二战后11个高速增长经济体的出口、消费和产出三个变量之间的因果关系进行计量检验。对单个经济体的时间序列数据进行三变量向量自回归估计后发现,这些经济体的三变量之间存在不同的因果关系,并没有一般性的规律;而将这些经济体在1978-1996年的三变量进行面板向量自回归并进行因果检验后的结果显示,存在显著的出口和产出之间的双向因果关系,以及消费和产出的双向因果关系。本文的分析结果表明,对于快速赶超的发展中经济体,经济增长应该注意维持内部和外部的平衡,既重视出口也重视消费对经济增长的拉动作用。

On Export, Consumption and Output Growth

Using time-series and panel data, this paper examines the Granger causality relations between total output, exports, and consumption among 11 developing economies with high growth rate after WWII. It estimates the VAR of the three variables to find various Granger causal relations for each of the 11 economies. The results indicate each economy has different causality relations and does not yield general rules. It constructs the panel data of the three variables for these economies as a group and estimates the panel data VAR equations for Granger causality tests. The results re- veal that there exists bidirectional causality between export and GDP for the group. The bidirectional causality also exists between consumer and GDP. These results indicate that government should pay attention to external and internal balance and the pulling effect of both export and consumption on economic output.