Postwar slowdowns and long-run growth: a Bayesian analysis of structural break models |
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Authors: | Yi-Chi Chen Eric Zivot |
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Institution: | 1. Department of Economics, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan, 701, Taiwan ROC 2. Department of Economics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98195, USA
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Abstract: | Using Bayesian methods, we re-examine the empirical evidence from Ben-David, Lumsdaine, and Papell (Empir Econ 28:303–319,
2003) regarding structural breaks in the long-run growth path of real output series for a number of OECD countries. Our Bayesian
framework allows the number and pattern of structural changes in trend and variance to be endogenously determined. We find
little evidence of postwar growth slowdowns across countries, and smaller output volatility for most of the developed countries
after the end of World War II. Our empirical findings are consistent with neoclassical growth models, which predict increasing
growth over the long run. The majority of the countries we analyze have grown faster in the postwar era as opposed to the
period before the first break. |
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Keywords: | |
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