我国贸易条件异常波动的内外冲击因素

针对2007年第二季度至2012年期间我国价格贸易条件异常波动的现象,文章利用可变参数状态空间模型,比较分析了相关要素的影响方向和力度。结果表明:(1)国外产出缺口、国际大宗商品价格和人民币升值是影响我国价格贸易条件异常波动的主要原因;(2)比较收入贸易条件的影响因素,国外产出缺口始终处于正向影响,人民币升值具有较强的负向影响,国际大宗商品价格和国内通货膨胀的影响较中性。

A Comparative Study of Internal and External Factors of Abnormal Fluctuations of China's Terms of Trade

For the second quarter of 2007 to 2012 during China’s terms of trade abnormal fluctuations in,by using variable parameters of the state space model,a comparative analysis of the impact of the direction and intensity of the relevant elements.The results showed that:(1) Foreign output gap,international commodity prices and the appreciation of the RMB is the main reason for abnormal fluctuations of the impact of China’s terms of trade index.(2) The influencing factors of the comparison income terms of trade,foreign output gap is always in a positive effect.Appreciation of RMB has a strong negative impact,the impact of international commodity prices and domestic inflation more neutral.