人民币升值对我国制造业的就业影响

国际金融危机背景下人民币不断升值以来,我国的就业形势一直比较严峻。人民币升值对制造业就业的影响,主要体现在总需求效应、资本替代劳动效应、国际投资效应以及消费效应等方面。本文运用协整关系检验、格兰杰因果关系检验和误差修正模型等研究方法对人民币升值影响制造业就业量进行了实证分析,结果表明,人民币汇率与制造业就业量之间存在长期均衡关系,人民币在合理的范围内适度升值有利于该就业量的提高。

Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Appreciation of the RMB on Manufacturing Employment

Since the international financial crisis,the context of the appreciation of the RMB,China′s employment situation has been more severe.Appreciation of the RMB on manufacturing employment,mainly reflected in the aggregate demand effect,substitution of capital for labor effect,international investment effect and consumption effect.By using data of Shandong Province,the use of the co-integration analysis,Granger causality test and error correction model,and other research methods on the appreciation of the RMB manufacturing employment is an empirical analysis.The results show the long-run equilibrium relationship between RMB exchange rate and manufacturing employment,RMB within a reasonable modest appreciation is in favor of employment.On the other hand,unidirectional Granger causality exists between RMB exchange rate and manufacturing employment,employment increase in the amount is not the main reason of the RMB exchange rate.