The equilibrium price of futures contracts: A result drawn from capital asset pricing model

A recent study shows that separation theorems in the stock and forward market literatures may not hold in an integrated financial market; therefore, the securities market may influence futures trading. This article investigates the securities market influence on the futures price. The result shows that although the futures price incorporates the investor's expectation about the future spot price, it generally is not a best estimate of the spot price. In addition, it is shown that the speculative activity can destabilize the cash market for some commodities, if initially, the underlying cash price is highly volatile.