Rose effect and the euro: is the magic gone? |
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Authors: | Tomá? Havránek |
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Institution: | (1) Economic Research and Financial Stability Department, Czech National Bank, Na Prikope 28, 115 03 Prague 1, Czech Republic;(2) Institute of Economic Studies, Charles University in Prague, Opletalova 26, 110 00 Prague 1, Czech Republic |
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Abstract: | This paper presents an updated meta-analysis of the effect of currency unions on trade, focusing on the euro area. Using meta-regression
methods such as the funnel asymmetry test, evidence for strong publication bias is found. The estimated underlying effect
for currency unions other than the eurozone reaches more than 60%. However, according to the meta-regression analysis, the
euro’s trade promoting effect corrected for publication bias is insignificant. The Rose effect literature shows signs of the
economics research cycle: reported t-statistic is a quadratic concave function of the publication year. Explanatory meta-regression (robust fixed effects and
random effects), that can explain about 70% of the heterogeneity in the literature, suggests that results published by some
authors might consistently differ from the mainstream output and that study outcomes are systematically dependent on study
design (usage of panel data, short- or long-run nature, number of countries in the data set). |
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