人民币升值与加工贸易升级：一个实证分析的结果

人民币升值的压力来自于中国的贸易顺差，尤其是加工贸易顺差，利用M～L条件分析人民币汇率变动与中国加工贸易进出口关系的结果反映出我国加工贸易商品结构的问题。由于汇率波动幅度扩大的长期性，改善商品结构，提高商品质量以减少技术性贸易壁垒的影响，提高市场对汇率变动的敏感度以及企业和居民的抗风险意识和能力，是稳定贸易收支的重要措施。

RMB Appreciation and Processing Trade Improvement: A Substantiation Analysis Result

The pressure of RMB appreciation is the result of trade surplus, especially processing trade surplus. By using M-L condition to analyze the relation between RMB appreciation and processing trade, the result reflects that the commodity structure is not reasonable enough. Due to the long-term of exchange fluctuations, to improve commodity structure, increase market sensitivity to the exchange rate and increase anti-risk capacity are the key ways for stabilizing the trade balance.